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中美贸易战:不只是逆差的“超限战”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月21日 22:34:46
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u米注册代理平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。中美贸易战:不只是逆差的“超限战”

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(第)(三)(,从)(风)(险)(投)(资)(资)(金)(流)(向)(看)(,美)(国)(是)(风)(险)(投)(资)(基)(金)(流)(向)(的)(主)(要)(目)(的)(地)(,2013年)(后)(中)(国)(对)(风)(险)(投)(资)(资)(金)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(快)(速)(上)(升)(并)(于)(2014年)(超)(越)(欧)(盟)(成)(为)(全)(球)(仅)(次)(于)(美)(国)(的)(第)(二)(大)(风)(险)(投)(资)(资)(金)(吸)(引)(国)(,参)(见)(图)(表)(3。
第)(四)(,从)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(出)(规)(模)(看)(,自)(2011年)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(超)(越)(欧)(盟)(成)(为)(全)(球)(最)(主)(要)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(出)(国)(,截)(止)(至)(2016年)(中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(出)(规)(模)(占)(全)(球)(比)(重)(高)(达)(32%,高)(出)(欧)(盟)(12个)(百)(分)(点)(,参)(见)(图)(表)(4。
值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(是)(,中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(工)(业)(产)(出)(值)(或)(与)(中)(国)(“世)(界)(工)(厂)(”地)(位)(有)(关)(,这)(将)(导)(致)(中)(国)(实)(际)(能)(力)(被)(高)(估)(。进)(入)(第)(四)(次)(产)(业)(转)(移)(阶)(段)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(主)(要)(承)(接)(电)(子)(产)(品)(生)(产)(、加)(工)(组)(装)(活)(动)(,由)(此)(导)(致)(中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(值)(快)(速)(上)(升)(。与)(之)(对)(应)(,中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(进)(、出)(口)(规)(模)(也)(在)(不)(断)(扩)(张)(,参)(见)(图)(表)(5。
当)(前)(中)(国)(在)(高)(新)(技)(术)(领)(域)(发)(展)(呈)(追)(赶)(态)(势)(,且)(在)(多)(项)(指)(标)(位)(居)(全)(球)(前)(列)(,挑)(战)(美)(国)(的)(技)(术)(领)(先)(地)(位)(。根)(据)(美)(国)(媒)(体)([4],中)(国)(已)(在)(高)(压)(输)(电)(、高)(铁)(、煤)(炭)(清)(洁)(高)(效)(利)(用)(技)(术)(、核)(能)(、可)(替)(代)(能)(源)(汽)(车)(、可)(再)(生)(能)(源)(、超)(级)(计)(算)(等)(领)(域)(已)(经)(超)(越)(美)(国)(。由)(此)(,在)(美)(方)(看)(来)(,处)(于)(上)(升)(期)(的)(中)(国)(对)(美)(国)(技)(术)(领)(先)(地)(位)(已)(构)(成)(威)(胁)(。
2、美)(国)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(政)(策)(新)(逻)(辑)(:全)(方)(位)(压)(制)(中)(国)(技)(术)(进)(步)(
中)(国)(的)(技)(术)(追)(赶)(引)(起)(美)(国)(情)(绪)(恐)(慌)(,在)(这)(种)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(的)(指)(引)(下)(,美)(国)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(政)(策)(将)(不)(断)(趋)(紧)(。本)(文)(梳)(理)(当)(前)(美)(国)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(政)(策)(发)(现)(,美)(国)(或)(正)(从)(美)(国)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(政)(策)(正)(从)(政)(策)(支)(持)(、技)(术)(阻)(断)(及)(市)(场)(关)(闭)(多)(方)(面)(阻)(碍)(中)(国)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(的)(发)(展)(。具)(体)(为)(:
第)(一)(,从)(政)(策)(支)(持)(看)(,中)(国)(的)(产)(业)(政)(策)(,尤)(其)(是)(对)(高)(端)(制)(造)(业)(的)(产)(业)(政)(策)(始)(终)(饱)(受)(美)(国)(诟)(病)(。在)(最)(新)(一)(期)(的)(《关)(于)(中)(国)(履)(行)(WTO承)(诺)(情)(况)(的)(报)(告)(》中)(,美)(国)(认)(为)(《中)(国)(制)(造)(2025》是)(中)(国)(政)(府)(主)(导)(经)(济)(行)(为)(的)(证)(明)(之)(一)(。中)(国)(的)(目)(的)(在)(于)(通)(过)(公)(平)(和)(不)(公)(平)(的)(行)(为)(,在)(高)(新)(技)(术)(领)(域)(进)(行)(进)(口)(替)(代)(,随)(后)(占)(领)(全)(球)(市)(场)([5]。由)(此)(,我)(国)(在)(高)(新)(技)(术)(领)(域)(的)(产)(业)(政)(策)(将)(成)(为)(美)(国)(发)(起)(贸)(易)(救)(济)(措)(施)(的)(重)(要)(抓)(手)(,而)(在)(《中)(国)(制)(造)(2025》中)(提)(列)(的)(十)(大)(重)(点)(领)(域)(:新)(一)(代)(信)(息)(技)(术)(产)(业)(、高)(档)(数)(控)(机)(床)(和)(机)(器)(人)(、航)(空)(航)(天)(装)(备)(、海)(洋)(工)(程)(装)(备)(及)(高)(技)(术)(船)(舶)(、先)(进)(轨)(道)(交)(通)(装)(备)(、节)(能)(与)(新)(能)(源)(汽)(车)(、电)(力)(装)(备)(、农)(机)(装)(备)(、新)(材)(料)(、生)(物)(医)(药)(及)(高)(性)(能)(医)(疗)(器)(械)(或)(成)(为)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(摩)(擦)(事)(故)(的)(高)(发)(地)(。
第)(二)(,从)(技)(术)(阻)(断)(看)(,中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(“干)(中)(学)(”通)(道)(或)(被)(阻)(断)(。一)(般)(而)(言)(,进)(口)(及)(利)(用)(外)(资)(是)(发)(展)(中)(经)(济)(体)(实)(现)(技)(术)(追)(赶)(的)(重)(要)(途)(径)(之)(一)(。当)(前)(美)(国)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(政)(策)(正)(从)(限)(制)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(对)(华)(出)(口)(及)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(技)(术)(外)(溢)(效)(应)(两)(方)(面)(进)(行)(。
一)(方)(面)(,从)(出)(口)(限)(制)(看)(,美)(国)(以)(国)(家)(安)(全)(为)(由)(,对)(华)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(出)(口)(进)(行)(管)(制)(,这)(导)(致)(美)(国)(优)(势)(产)(品)(对)(华)(出)(口)(不)(足)(。2017年)(我)(国)(自)(美)(进)(口)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(占)(全)(国)(6高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(进)(口)(总)(值)(6%,低)(于)(自)(美)(进)(口)(整)(体)(占)(比)(2.3个)(百)(分)(点)(,参)(见)(图)(表)(6。
另)(一)(方)(面)(,从)(利)(用)(外)(资)(看)(,美)(国)(以)(知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(为)(由)(正)(限)(制)(外)(资)(对)(华)(技)(术)(外)(溢)(效)(应)(。中)(国)(的)(知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(政)(策)(,尤)(其)(是)(外)(资)(准)(入)(政)(策)(中)(技)(术)(转)(移)(政)(策)(饱)(受)(诟)(病)(。《关)(于)(中)(国)(履)(行)(WTO承)(诺)(情)(况)(的)(报)(告)(》就)(知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(议)(题)(,提)(出)(中)(国)(存)(在)(技)(术)(本)(地)(化)(、在)(线)(盗)(版)(、商)(标)(恶)(意)(抢)(注)(、药)(品)(、知)(识)(产)(权)(执)(法)(、商)(业)(秘)(密)(、软)(件)(盗)(版)(、其)(他)(盗)(版)(问)(题)(及)(边)(境)(执)(法)(等)(问)(题)(。
具)(体)(而)(言)(,美)(国)(认)(为)(中)(国)(以)(加)(强)(网)(络)(安)(全)(或)(保)(护)(国)(家)(安)(全)(为)(由)(,推)(行)(不)(合)(理)(的)(知)(识)(产)(权)(披)(露)(条)(件)(,并)(要)(求)(相)(关)(知)(识)(产)(权)(须)(在)(中)(国)(开)(发)([6]。再)(如)(在)(线)(盗)(版)(问)(题)(,美)(国)(认)(为)(中)(国)(对)(外)(国)(影)(视)(内)(容)(的)(不)(合)(理)(审)(查)(制)(度)(,导)(致)(中)(国)(观)(众)(无)(法)(在)(获)(得)(版)(权)(许)(可)(的)(情)(况)(下)(利)(用)(主)(流)(媒)(体)(在)(线)(平)(台)(观)(看)(外)(国)(的)(电)(视)(节)(目)(,进)(而)(催)(生)(了)(在)(线)(盗)(版)(问)(题)(等)([7]。
知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(涉)(及)(到)(各)(行)(各)(业)(,其)(中)(技)(术)(密)(集)(型)(行)(业)(受)(其)(影)(响)(最)(为)(严)(重)(。“干)(中)(学)(”是)(中)(国)(实)(现)(技)(术)(追)(赶)(的)(重)(要)(通)(道)(,技)(术)(转)(移)(是)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(技)(术)(外)(溢)(的)(重)(要)(通)(道)(。显)(然)(,美)(国)(对)(中)(国)(知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(的)(打)(击)(,其)(目)(的)(在)(于)(阻)(断)(中)(国)(技)(术)(追)(赶)(的)(通)(道)(,进)(而)(保)(证)(美)(国)(在)(高)(新)(技)(术)(领)(域)(的)(制)(高)(点)(。
第)(三)(,从)(市)(场)(关)(闭)(看)(,美)(国)(或)(对)(中)(国)(部)(分)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(关)(闭)(市)(场)(。根)(据)(产)(业)(生)(命)(周)(期)(理)(论)(,在)(产)(业)(初)(创)(期)(,其)(产)(品)(市)(场)(需)(求)(狭)(小)(,生)(产)(活)(动)(主)(要)(满)(足)(国)(内)(需)(求)(;随)(着)(产)(业)(进)(入)(成)(长)(期)(,其)(需)(求)(市)(场)(不)(断)(拓)(展)(,由)(国)(内)(拓)(展)(至)(海)(外)(,海)(外)(市)(场)(对)(一)(国)(新)(兴)(产)(业)(成)(长)(的)(重)(要)(性)(不)(言)(而)(喻)(。根)(据)(我)(们)(1月)(22日)(发)(布)(的)(报)(告)(《揭)(开)(特)(朗)(普)(对)(华)(贸)(易)(“军)(火)(库)(”》可)(知)(,美)(国)(频)(繁)(对)(华)(发)(起)(“337”调)(查)(,知)(识)(技)(术)(密)(集)(型)(产)(品)(是)(“337”调)(查)(的)(重)(点)(对)(象)(,且)(市)(场)(关)(闭)(是)(其)(制)(裁)(措)(施)(。在)(中)(国)(技)(术)(追)(赶)(引)(发)(的)(恐)(慌)(情)(绪)(指)(引)(下)(,中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(对)(美)(出)(口)(面)(临)(的)(市)(场)(关)(闭)(风)(险)(不)(断)(上)(升)(。
3、中)(美)(经)(贸)(关)(系)(新)(逻)(辑)(:美)(国)(想)(要)(什)(么)(?
中)(美)(经)(贸)(关)(系)(竞)(争)(与)(合)(作)(并)(存)(,一)(方)(面)(,中)(国)(的)(技)(术)(追)(赶)(引)(发)(中)(美)(在)(先)(进)(技)(术)(领)(域)(的)(竞)(争)(关)(系)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(,美)(国)(在)(服)(务)(业)(出)(口)(、能)(源)(及)(农)(产)(品)(出)(口)(对)(中)(国)(市)(场)(依)(赖)(度)(较)(高)(。那)(么)(站)(在)(美)(方)(的)(角)(度)(观)(察)(,美)(方)(希)(望)(从)(中)(国)(获)(得)(什)(么)(?
第)(一)(,服)(务)(业)(市)(场)(开)(放)(。《关)(于)(中)(国)(履)(行)(WTO承)(诺)(情)(况)(的)(报)(告)(》指)(出)(,在)(服)(务)(贸)(易)(领)(域)(,美)(国)(虽)(与)(中)(国)(保)(持)(双)(边)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(,但)(与)(亚)(洲)(其)(他)(国)(家)(相)(比)(,中)(国)(仍)(表)(现)(不)(佳)([8],参)(见)(图)(表)(7。
具)(体)(而)(言)(,美)(国)(认)(为)(中)(国)(在)(电)(子)(支)(付)(服)(务)(业)(、影)(片)(进)(口)(、银)(行)(服)(务)(、保)(险)(服)(务)(、证)(券)(基)(金)(业)(务)(、电)(信)(服)(务)(、网)(络)(相)(关)(服)(务)(、影)(像)(服)(务)(、快)(递)(服)(务)(及)(法)(律)(业)(务)(等)(领)(域)(均)(存)(在)(较)(多)(的)(市)(场)(准)(入)(壁)(垒)(。
如)(,针)(对)(银)(行)(业)(服)(务)(,报)(告)(指)(出)(中)(国)(拒)(绝)(开)(放)(银)(行)(部)(门)(,同)(时)(对)(外)(资)(行)(设)(置)(了)(诸)(多)(条)(款)(,限)(制)(了)(外)(资)(行)(的)(业)(务)(开)(展)(。再)(如)(,针)(对)(保)(险)(业)(,报)(告)(指)(出)(中)(国)(限)(制)(了)(外)(资)(持)(股)(保)(险)(业)(的)(比)(例)(,同)(时)(禁)(止)(外)(资)(投)(资)(政)(治)(风)(险)(保)(险)([9]。对)(此)(,2017年)(11月)(3日)(,财)(政)(部)(宣)(布)(中)(方)(将)(单)(个)(或)(多)(个)(外)(国)(投)(资)(者)(直)(接)(或)(间)(接)(投)(资)(证)(券)(、基)(金)(管)(理)(、期)(货)(公)(司)(的)(投)(资)(比)(例)(限)(制)(放)(宽)(至)(51%。上)(述)(措)(施)(实)(施)(三)(年)(后)(,投)(资)(比)(例)(将)(不)(受)(限)(制)(。将)(取)(消)(对)(中)(资)(银)(行)(和)(金)(融)(资)(产)(管)(理)(公)(司)(的)(外)(资)(单)(一)(持)(股)(不)(超)(过)(20%、合)(计)(持)(股)(不)(超)(过)(25%的)(持)(股)(比)(例)(限)(制)(,实)(施)(内)(外)(一)(致)(的)(银)(行)(业)(股)(权)(投)(资)(比)(例)(规)(则)(;三)(年)(后)(将)(单)(个)(或)(多)(个)(外)(国)(投)(资)(者)(投)(资)(设)(立)(经)(营)(人)(身)(保)(险)(业)(务)(的)(保)(险)(公)(司)(的)(投)(资)(比)(例)(放)(宽)(至)(51%,五)(年)(后)(投)(资)(比)(例)(不)(受)(限)(制)(。
除)(金)(融)(行)(业)(开)(放)(外)(,我)(国)(影)(像)(服)(务)(市)(场)(也)(面)(临)(较)(大)(开)(放)(压)(力)(。针)(对)(中)(国)(知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(问)(题)(,美)(国)(提)(出)(由)(于)(中)(国)(严)(审)(查)(制)(度)(限)(制)(了)(美)(国)(音)(乐)(、电)(影)(、书)(籍)(、期)(刊)(、软)(件)(和)(电)(子)(游)(戏)(的)(出)(口)(,进)(而)(部)(分)(催)(生)(了)(在)(线)(盗)(版)(问)(题)(。由)(此)(,美)(国)(以)(知)(识)(产)(权)(保)(护)(为)(由)(,要)(求)(中)(国)(放)(开)(音)(乐)(。电)(影)(等)(相)(关)(服)(务)(业)(产)(品)(的)(进)(口)(。
此)(外)(,针)(对)(新)(一)(代)(信)(息)(技)(术)(领)(域)(如)(云)(计)(算)(,美)(国)(认)(为)(:中)(国)(不)(允)(许)(外)(资)(直)(接)(提)(供)(云)(计)(算)(服)(务)(,并)(要)(求)(外)(资)(以)(技)(术)(转)(移)(为)(条)(件)(从)(事)(云)(计)(算)(服)(务)([10]。由)(此)(,中)(国)(不)(仅)(在)(传)(统)(金)(融)(领)(域)(及)(影)(像)(市)(场)(,同)(时)(在)(新)(兴)(行)(业)(如)(信)(息)(技)(术)(领)(域)(也)(面)(临)(较)(大)(开)(放)(压)(力)(。
第)(二)(,农)(产)(品)(市)(场)(开)(放)(。早)(在)(2018年)(2月)(22日)(,白)(宫)(发)(布)(新)(闻)(暗)(示)(新)(贸)(易)(协)(议)(必)(须)(能)(帮)(到)(那)(些)(被)(全)(球)(化)(忽)(视)(的)(美)(国)(人)([11],尤)(其)(是)(帮)(助)(美)(国)(优)(势)(产)(品)(如)(能)(源)(和)(农)(产)(品)(的)(出)(口)(。《关)(于)(中)(国)(履)(行)(WTO承)(诺)(情)(况)(的)(报)(告)(》指)(出)(中)(国)(在)(农)(产)(品)(进)(口)(领)(域)(存)(在)(诸)(多)(不)(合)(理)(限)(制)(。如)(中)(国)(实)(施)(卫)(生)(与)(植)(物)(卫)(生)(措)(施)(协)(议)(,限)(制)(牛)(肉)(、禽)(肉)(及)(猪)(肉)(进)(口)(;在)(农)(业)(补)(贴)(方)(面)(,中)(国)(给)(予)(了)(大)(内)(的)(国)(内)(补)(贴)(和)(其)(他)(支)(持)(,如)(实)(施)(最)(低)(收)(购)(价)(制)(度)(及)(棉)(花)(收)(储)(制)(度)([12]。
《2018贸)(易)(政)(策)(纲)(要)(暨)(2017年)(度)(报)(告)(》再)(次)(强)(调)(了)(中)(国)(农)(业)(补)(贴)(问)(题)(,认)(为)(中)(国)(过)(度)(的)(市)(场)(价)(格)(支)(持)(导)(致)(政)(府)(刺)(激)(下)(的)(增)(产)(行)(为)([13]。对)(此)(,美)(国)(已)(于)(2017年)(成)(立)(专)(家)(组)(进)(行)(调)(查)(。同)(时)(,美)(国)(亦)(表)(示)(对)(中)(国)(在)(大)(米)(、小)(麦)(和)(玉)(米)(方)(面)(实)(施)(关)(税)(配)(额)(制)(度)(表)(示)(不)(满)(,其)(认)(为)(中)(国)(并)(未)(完)(全)(使)(用)(进)(口)(配)(额)(导)(致)(美)(国)(相)(关)(产)(品)(出)(口)(不)(及)(预)(期)(。对)(此)(议)(题)(,美)(方)(表)(示)(已)(于)(2017年)(成)(立)(专)(家)(组)([14]。由)(此)(预)(见)(,2018年)(美)(国)(将)(针)(对)(中)(国)(农)(业)(补)(贴)(政)(策)(及)(进)(口)(配)(额)(制)(度)(发)(起)(调)(查)(继)(而)(逼)(迫)(中)(国)(对)(美)(市)(场)(开)(放)(。
第)(三)(,中)(国)(主)(动)(去)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(。美)(方)(在)(《2017年)(中)(国)(WTO合)(规)(报)(告)(》中)(提)(出)(中)(国)(在)(钢)(铁)(行)(业)(去)(产)(能)(承)(诺)(并)(未)(见)(显)(著)(成)(效)([15]。值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(是)(,报)(告)(同)(时)(指)(出)(中)(国)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(问)(题)(不)(仅)(出)(现)(在)(钢)(铁)(、铝)(这)(类)(行)(业)(,也)(出)(现)(在)(《中)(国)(制)(造)(2025》所)(支)(持)(的)(产)(业)(。《2018贸)(易)(政)(策)(纲)(要)(暨)(2017年)(度)(报)(告)(》在)(此)(强)(调)(了)(中)(国)(在)(关)(键)(工)(业)(领)(域)(如)(钢)(铁)(和)(铝)(行)(业)(推)(行)(的)(产)(业)(政)(策)(导)(致)(了)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(,并)(表)(示)(将)(运)(用)(美)(国)(国)(内)(法)(阻)(断)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(之)(源)([16]。在)(具)(体)(实)(践)(中)(,针)(对)(钢)(铁)(和)(铝)(制)(品)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(问)(题)(,2017年)(美)(国)(依)(据)(1962年)(修)(订)(的)(贸)(易)(扩)(张)(法)(案)(第)(232条)(款)(,以)(进)(口)(威)(胁)(国)(家)(安)(全)(为)(由)(发)(起)(调)(查)(。2018年)(3月)(,特)(朗)(普)(宣)(布)(对)(进)(口)(钢)(铁)(和)(铝)(产)(品)(分)(别)(开)(征)(25%和)(10%的)(全)(球)(性)(关)(税)(。借)(鉴)(美)(国)(对)(钢)(铁)(和)(铝)(产)(品)(的)(做)(法)(,美)(国)(或)(亦)(以)(威)(胁)(国)(家)(安)(全)(为)(由)(,对)(中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(产)(品)(发)(起)(“232”调)(查)(,进)(而)(阻)(碍)(中)(国)(高)(新)(技)(术)(行)(业)(的)(发)(展)(。
来)(源)(:鲁)(政)(委)(的)(世)(界)(观)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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