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面对泡沫,保房价还是保汇率:俄罗斯、日本和东南亚的启示

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年02月19日 09:45:21
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u米注册代理平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。面对泡沫,保房价还是保汇率:俄罗斯、日本和东南亚的启示

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(3“日)(本)(模)(式)(”:保)(汇)(率)(、弃)(房)(价)(
3.1“日)(本)(模)(式)(”的)(起)(点)(:广)(场)(协)(议)(
第)(二)(次)(石)(油)(危)(机)(后)(,美)(联)(储)(为)(了)(治)(理)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(连)(续)(提)(高)(联)(邦)(基)(金)(利)(率)(,导)(致)(美)(元)(大)(幅)(升)(值)(。美)(元)(过)(强)(导)(致)(美)(国)(对)(外)(贸)(易)(逆)(差)(大)(幅)(增)(长)(。为)(了)(改)(善)(国)(际)(收)(支)(不)(平)(衡)(的)(状)(况)(,美)(国)(希)(望)(通)(过)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(来)(增)(加)(产)(品)(的)(出)(口)(竞)(争)(力)(。
1985年)(9月)(,美)(国)(、日)(本)(、联)(邦)(德)(国)(、法)(国)(、英)(国)(等)(5个)(发)(达)(国)(家)(的)(财)(政)(部)(长)(和)(央)(行)(行)(长)(,在)(纽)(约)(广)(场)(饭)(店)(举)(行)(会)(议)(,决)(定)(五)(国)(政)(府)(联)(合)(干)(预)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(,使)(美)(元)(兑)(主)(要)(货)(币)(有)(序)(地)(下)(跌)(,以)(解)(决)(美)(国)(巨)(额)(的)(贸)(易)(赤)(字)(,史)(称)(“广)(场)(协)(议)(”。“广)(场)(协)(议)(”签)(订)(之)(后)(,五)(国)(开)(始)(在)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(抛)(售)(美)(元)(,美)(元)(持)(续)(大)(幅)(度)(贬)(值)(,而)(世)(界)(主)(要)(货)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(均)(有)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(上)(升)(。其)(中)(,日)(元)(的)(升)(值)(幅)(度)(最)(大)(,三)(年)(间)(达)(到)(了)(86.1%。
3.2日)(本)(政)(府)(对)(日)(元)(升)(值)(的)(错)(误)(应)(对)(
3.2.1日)(元)(升)(值)(对)(日)(本)(经)(济)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(微)(弱)(
日)(元)(升)(值)(对)(日)(本)(贸)(易)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(持)(续)(时)(间)(较)(短)(。理)(论)(上)(讲)(,日)(元)(升)(值)(不)(利)(于)(出)(口)(,有)(利)(于)(进)(口)(。1985年)(9月)(“广)(场)(协)(议)(”签)(订)(后)(,日)(本)(出)(口)(出)(现)(了)(短)(时)(的)(停)(滞)(,1986年)(和)(1987年)(出)(口)(同)(比)(分)(别)(下)(滑)(了)(15.89%和)(5.60%。但)(是)(,外)(需)(环)(境)(也)(是)(影)(响)(出)(口)(的)(重)(要)(因)(素)(。80年)(代)(世)(界)(经)(济)(步)(入)(弱)(复)(苏)(小)(周)(期)(,1988、1989和)(1990年)(日)(本)(出)(口)(增)(速)(逐)(渐)(转)(正)(,分)(别)(录)(得)(1.87%、11.44%和)(9.61%。也)(就)(是)(说)(,日)(元)(升)(值)(对)(日)(本)(出)(口)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(只)(是)(在)(日)(元)(急)(速)(升)(值)(的)(阶)(段)(。
3.2.2日)(本)(政)(府)(的)(财)(政)(和)(货)(币)(刺)(激)(
因)(为)(错)(误)(估)(计)(了)(日)(元)(升)(值)(对)(国)(内)(经)(济)(的)(不)(利)(冲)(击)(,日)(本)(政)(府)(制)(定)(了)(一)(系)(列)(的)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(政)(策)(提)(升)(内)(需)(,并)(放)(松)(国)(内)(的)(金)(融)(管)(制)(。首)(先)(,1986-1988年)(,日)(本)(实)(行)(了)(税)(制)(改)(革)(以)(刺)(激)(社)(会)(消)(费)(与)(投)(资)(。税)(改)(中)(一)(项)(重)(要)(措)(施)(是)(重)(征)(利)(息)(所)(得)(税)(,这)(一)(举)(措)(加)(剧)(了)(金)(融)(脱)(媒)(。另)(外)(,日)(本)(政)(府)(提)(出)(一)(揽)(子)(刺)(激)(内)(需)(计)(划)(,主)(要)(以)(发)(行)(债)(券)(的)(形)(式)(筹)(集)(的)(。在)(1986-1989年)(,日)(本)(政)(府)(累)(计)(发)(行)(债)(券)(9.8万)(亿)(日)(元)(,地)(方)(政)(府)(累)(计)(发)(行)(3.6万)(亿)(日)(元)(。
货)(币)(政)(策)(方)(面)(,为)(刺)(激)(内)(需)(,鼓)(励)(消)(费)(与)(投)(资)(,日)(本)(在)(1987年)(至)(1989年)(4月)(实)(行)(低)(利)(率)(政)(策)(,低)(利)(率)(和)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(削)(弱)(了)(银)(行)(存)(款)(的)(吸)(引)(力)(,大)(量)(储)(蓄)(转)(为)(投)(资)(,主)(要)(流)(向)(了)(股)(市)(和)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(。人)(们)(纷)(纷)(从)(银)(行)(借)(款)(投)(资)(到)(收)(益)(可)(观)(的)(股)(票)(和)(不)(动)(产)(中)(。于)(是)(,股)(价)(扶)(摇)(直)(上)(,地)(价)(暴)(涨)(。当)(时)(日)(本)(已)(经)(完)(成)(了)(城)(镇)(化)(,国)(内)(的)(城)(镇)(化)(率)(超)(过)(90%。在)(低)(利)(率)(和)(流)(动)(性)(过)(剩)(的)(催)(动)(下)(,一)(个)(巨)(大)(的)(泡)(沫)(正)(在)(诞)(生)(。
3.3弃)(房)(价)(:日)(本)(政)(府)(主)(动)(挤)(破)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(
随)(着)(大)(量)(资)(金)(涌)(入)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(,日)(本)(的)(地)(价)(疯)(狂)(飙)(升)(。据)(日)(本)(国)(土)(厅)(公)(布)(的)(调)(查)(统)(计)(数)(据)(,1985-1988年)(,东)(京)(的)(商)(业)(用)(地)(价)(格)(指)(数)(在)(短)(短)(三)(年)(内)(增)(长)(了)(近)(2倍)(。1990年)(,仅)(东)(京)(都)(的)(地)(价)(就)(相)(当)(于)(美)(国)(全)(国)(的)(土)(地)(价)(格)(。而)(同)(一)(时)(期)(日)(本)(名)(义)(GDP的)(年)(增)(幅)(只)(有)(5%左)(右)(,快)(速)(上)(涨)(的)(地)(价)(已)(经)(严)(重)(影)(响)(到)(了)(实)(体)(工)(业)(的)(发)(展)(。
在)(泡)(沫)(的)(压)(力)(下)(,日)(本)(政)(府)(采)(取)(了)(非)(常)(严)(厉)(的)(行)(政)(措)(施)(主)(动)(挤)(泡)(沫)(。
首)(先)(,日)(本)(财)(务)(省)(在)(1987年)(7月)(发)(布)(了)(行)(政)(指)(导)(,要)(求)(金)(融)(机)(构)(严)(格)(控)(制)(在)(土)(地)(上)(的)(贷)(款)(项)(目)(,具)(体)(而)(言)(,就)(是)(要)(求)(“房)(地)(产)(贷)(款)(增)(长)(速)(度)(不)(能)(超)(过)(总)(体)(贷)(款)(增)(长)(速)(度)(”。受)(此)(影)(响)(,日)(本)(各)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(房)(地)(产)(贷)(款)(增)(长)(速)(度)(迅)(速)(下)(降)(,从)(1987年)(6月)(的)(36.6%下)(降)(到)(了)(1988年)(3月)(的)(10.2%。到)(1991年)(,日)(本)(商)(业)(银)(行)(实)(际)(上)(已)(经)(停)(止)(了)(对)(房)(地)(产)(业)(的)(贷)(款)(。
紧)(接)(着)(,日)(本)(央)(行)(从)(1989年)(开)(始)(连)(续)(5次)(加)(息)(,商)(业)(银)(行)(向)(央)(行)(借)(款)(的)(利)(息)(率)(从)(1987年)(2月)(的)(2.5%上)(升)(到)(了)(1990年)(8月)(的)(6%。货)(币)(供)(给)(增)(速)(随)(之)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(。
随)(着)(日)(本)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(转)(向)(,股)(票)(市)(场)(的)(泡)(沫)(首)(先)(破)(裂)(。日)(经)(指)(数)(在)(1989年)(12月)(31日)(达)(到)(了)(日)(本)(股)(市)(最)(高)(点)(38,915点)(后)(急)(转)(直)(下)(,到)(1992年)(8月)(降)(幅)(超)(过)(60%,日)(本)(股)(市)(陷)(入)(了)(长)(达)(20年)(的)(熊)(市)(之)(中)(。
日)(本)(股)(票)(价)(格)(的)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(,使)(大)(量)(银)(行)(、企)(业)(和)(证)(券)(公)(司)(出)(现)(巨)(额)(亏)(损)(。公)(司)(破)(产)(导)(致)(大)(量)(不)(动)(产)(涌)(入)(市)(场)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(供)(过)(于)(求)(,房)(价)(出)(现)(下)(跌)(趋)(势)(。与)(此)(同)(时)(,随)(着)(日)(元)(套)(利)(空)(间)(日)(益)(缩)(小)(,国)(际)(资)(本)(开)(始)(撤)(逃)(。1992年)(,日)(本)(政)(府)(出)(台)(“地)(价)(税)(”政)(策)(,规)(定)(凡)(持)(有)(土)(地)(者)(每)(年)(必)(须)(交)(纳)(一)(定)(比)(例)(的)(税)(收)(。日)(本)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(立)(刻)(进)(入)(“供)(大)(于)(求)(”的)(冰)(河)(时)(代)(。
1991年)(后)(,日)(本)(土)(地)(价)(格)(开)(启)(漫)(长)(的)(下)(跌)(之)(旅)(。日)(本)(统)(计)(局)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(2015年)(,六)(大)(主)(要)(城)(市)(住)(宅)(用)(地)(价)(格)(跌)(幅)(为)(65%,所)(有)(城)(市)(跌)(幅)(为)(53%。
4“东)(南)(亚)(模)(式)(”:弃)(汇)(率)(、弃)(房)(价)(
4.1“东)(南)(亚)(模)(式)(”的)(背)(景)(:全)(球)(产)(业)(转)(移)(、金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(和)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(制)(
二)(战)(之)(后)(,东)(南)(亚)(各)(个)(国)(家)(迅)(速)(发)(展)(。由)(于)(该)(地)(区)(人)(口)(众)(多)(,劳)(动)(力)(丰)(富)(,同)(时)(消)(费)(市)(场)(也)(非)(常)(广)(阔)(。在)(全)(球)(产)(业)(化)(的)(浪)(潮)(中)(,东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(抓)(住)(机)(会)(,引)(进)(劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(产)(业)(,大)(力)(推)(动)(工)(业)(化)(,在)(较)(短)(时)(期)(内)(发)(展)(迅)(速)(,涌)(现)(亚)(洲)(四)(小)(龙)(等)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(。
制)(造)(业)(的)(发)(展)(需)(要)(大)(量)(资)(金)(,东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(为)(了)(吸)(引)(外)(资)(,逐)(渐)(放)(开)(资)(本)(管)(制)(。1980年)(代)(,东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(陆)(续)(开)(启)(以)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(为)(主)(的)(金)(融)(改)(革)(。各)(国)(纷)(纷)(放)(松)(对)(资)(本)(账)(户)(的)(管)(制)(,包)(括)(菲)(律)(宾)(、马)(来)(西)(亚)(和)(印)(尼)(等)(国)(。到)(了)(20世)(纪)(90年)(代)(初)(期)(,国)(际)(资)(本)(看)(好)(东)(南)(亚)(经)(济)(,大)(量)(国)(际)(私)(人)(资)(本)(流)(入)(东)(南)(亚)(地)(区)(。
当)(时)(,东)(南)(亚)(国)(家)(开)(始)(实)(施)(“钉)(住)(美)(元)(”有)(管)(理)(的)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(,其)(货)(币)(间)(接)(或)(直)(接)(与)(美)(元)(挂)(钩)(。这)(一)(措)(施)(导)(致)(东)(南)(亚)(四)(国)(货)(币)(进)(一)(步)(大)(幅)(度)(贬)(值)(,在)(截)(至)(1985年)(的)(五)(年)(间)(,泰)(国)(泰)(铢)(、马)(来)(西)(亚)(林)(吉)(特)(、印)(度)(尼)(西)(亚)(印)(尼)(盾)(以)(及)(菲)(律)(宾)(比)(索)(分)(别)(累)(积)(贬)(值)(32.64%、14.06%、77.13%和)(147.72%,特)(别)(是)(印)(尼)(和)(菲)(律)(宾)(本)(币)(贬)(值)(幅)(度)(巨)(大)(,拉)(低)(本)(国)(出)(口)(商)(品)(在)(国)(际)(市)(场)(上)(的)(价)(格)(,增)(强)(本)(国)(出)(口)(商)(品)(的)(国)(际)(竞)(争)(力)(。
4.2隐)(患)(:在)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(背)(景)(下)(的)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(制)(风)(险)(
当)(一)(国)(金)(融)(发)(展)(水)(平)(进)(入)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(阶)(段)(,如)(果)(政)(府)(继)(续)(保)(持)(对)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(的)(管)(制)(而)(实)(行)(钉)(住)(汇)(率)(制)(,其)(弊)(端)(会)(由)(于)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(下)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(的)(大)(规)(模)(高)(速)(流)(动)(而)(得)(到)(扩)(大)(。
4.2.1固)(定)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(的)(两)(个)(风)(险)(
固)(定)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(的)(一)(个)(问)(题)(是)(钉)(住)(国)(与)(被)(钉)(住)(国)(的)(货)(币)(形)(成)(了)(完)(全)(联)(动)(关)(系)(。1995年)(以)(后)(,美)(国)(“新)(经)(济)(”时)(代)(来)(临)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(出)(现)(了)(较)(长)(时)(间)(的)(繁)(荣)(,美)(元)(指)(数)(连)(续)(上)(行)(。由)(于)(东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(实)(行)(盯)(住)(美)(元)(的)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(,各)(国)(货)(币)(不)(得)(不)(跟)(随)(美)(元)(大)(幅)(走)(高)(,结)(果)(货)(币)(升)(值)(对)(出)(口)(和)(经)(济)(增)(长)(产)(生)(了)(严)(重)(冲)(击)(,贸)(易)(及)(经)(常)(项)(目)(产)(生)(了)(巨)(额)(赤)(字)(。比)(如)(泰)(国)(在)(1991-1995年)(的)(出)(口)(增)(长)(率)(为)(18.9%,1996年)(骤)(降)(至)(-0.2%。1991-1995年)(的)(GDP增)(长)(率)(为)(8.6%,1996年)(大)(幅)(下)(跌)(为)(5.9%。
固)(定)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(的)(另)(一)(个)(弊)(端)(是)(货)(币)(当)(局)(失)(去)(货)(币)(政)(策)(自)(主)(性)(。东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(汇)(率)(面)(临)(着)(巨)(大)(的)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(,为)(了)(维)(持)(盯)(住)(美)(元)(的)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(,各)(国)(中)(央)(银)(行)(先)(后)(实)(行)(紧)(缩)(性)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,另)(外)(,为)(了)(吸)(引)(外)(资)(流)(入)(,也)(需)(要)(继)(续)(提)(高)(利)(率)(。1995年)(末)(,泰)(国)(国)(内)(金)(融)(机)(构)(的)(存)(款)(利)(率)(和)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(分)(别)(达)(到)(12%和)(13.75%,不)(仅)(为)(亚)(洲)(地)(区)(最)(高)(,也)(超)(过)(国)(际)(平)(均)(水)(平)(的)(2倍)(以)(上)(。高)(利)(率)(政)(策)(进)(一)(步)(抑)(制)(了)(投)(资)(和)(消)(费)(,加)(剧)(了)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(,并)(使)(商)(业)(银)(行)(的)(不)(良)(资)(产)(情)(况)(进)(一)(步)(恶)(化)(,使)(经)(济)(雪)(上)(加)(霜)(。
4.2.2巨)(额)(外)(债)(和)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(
在)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(下)(,外)(汇)(市)(场)(失)(去)(了)(自)(动)(调)(节)(功)(能)(。为)(了)(弥)(补)(经)(常)(项)(目)(巨)(额)(逆)(差)(,各)(国)(放)(开)(资)(本)(市)(场)(,通)(过)(各)(种)(各)(样)(的)(优)(惠)(政)(策)(甚)(至)(高)(利)(率)(政)(策)(,吸)(引)(国)(外)(资)(本)(流)(入)(,弥)(补)(国)(际)(收)(支)(赤)(字)(。东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(积)(累)(了)(巨)(额)(的)(外)(债)(,比)(如)(,1996年)(泰)(国)(的)(外)(债)(规)(模)(达)(到)(930亿)(美)(元)(,超)(过)(当)(年)(国)(内)(生)(产)(总)(值)(的)(50%。
随)(着)(美)(元)(的)(升)(值)(,东)(南)(亚)(国)(家)(的)(出)(口)(及)(相)(关)(实)(体)(产)(业)(开)(始)(不)(振)(,大)(量)(国)(外)(资)(本)(转)(而)(流)(入)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(和)(股)(票)(市)(场)(,大)(幅)(推)(升)(了)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(和)(股)(票)(价)(格)(,最)(终)(形)(成)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(。1993-1996年)(,泰)(国)(SET指)(数)(于)(1990年)(12月)(触)(底)(反)(弹)(,1996年)(1月)(冲)(高)(至)(1041.33点)(,创)(了)(历)(史)(新)(高)(。在)(此)(期)(间)(,泰)(国)(的)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(了)(近)(400%,住)(房)(贷)(款)(总)(额)(从)(3285亿)(泰)(铢)(增)(加)(到)(7055亿)(泰)(铢)(,1997年)(进)(一)(步)(增)(加)(到)(7932亿)(泰)(铢)(。
4.3泰)(铢)(保)(卫)(战)(的)(失)(败)(:弃)(汇)(率)(和)(房)(价)(暴)(跌)(
当)(美)(元)(进)(入)(升)(值)(通)(道)(后)(,泰)(国)(国)(内)(经)(济)(问)(题)(重)(重)(,国)(内)(企)(业)(债)(务)(负)(担)(上)(升)(,企)(业)(破)(产)(,工)(人)(失)(业)(以)(及)(银)(行)(不)(良)(贷)(款)(上)(升)(。然)(而)(,泰)(国)(政)(府)(在)(调)(整)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(的)(问)(题)(上)(反)(应)(迟)(缓)(。而)(此)(时)(国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(意)(识)(到)(了)(东)(南)(亚)(经)(济)(的)(问)(题)(所)(在)(,选)(择)(了)(对)(汇)(率)(管)(制)(方)(面)(最)(宽)(松)(的)(泰)(国)(开)(始)(做)(空)(泰)(铢)(。
1997年)(3月)(,国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(借)(入)(150亿)(美)(元)(的)(远)(期)(泰)(铢)(合)(约)(,抛)(售)(泰)(铢)(,泰)(国)(央)(行)(动)(用)(20亿)(美)(元)(的)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(才)(平)(息)(了)(这)(次)(风)(波)(。
1997年)(5月)(,国)(际)(投)(机)(者)(再)(度)(出)(手)(。泰)(国)(央)(行)(再)(次)(动)(用)(50亿)(美)(元)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(进)(行)(干)(预)(,将)(离)(岸)(拆)(借)(利)(率)(提)(高)(到)(1000%,并)(且)(禁)(止)(国)(内)(金)(融)(机)(构)(向)(外)(借)(出)(泰)(铢)(。
1997年)(7月)(2日)(,泰)(国)(政)(府)(被)(迫)(宣)(布)(,放)(弃)(泰)(铢)(盯)(住)(美)(元)(的)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(,实)(行)(有)(管)(理)(的)(浮)(动)(汇)(率)(制)(度)(,当)(天)(泰)(铢)(对)(美)(元)(的)(汇)(率)(曾)(达)(到)(32.6∶1,贬)(值)(幅)(度)(高)(达)(30%以)(上)(。到)(1998年)(7月)(,泰)(铢)(对)(美)(元)(累)(计)(贬)(值)(了)(60%。泰)(铢)(大)(幅)(度)(贬)(值)(迅)(速)(波)(及)(包)(括)(菲)(律)(宾)(、马)(来)(西)(亚)(、新)(加)(坡)(、韩)(国)(和)(印)(度)(尼)(西)(亚)(在)(内)(的)(整)(个)(东)(南)(亚)(地)(区)(,最)(终)(形)(成)(了)(震)(惊)(全)(世)(界)(的)(亚)(洲)(金)(融)(危)(机)(。
随)(后)(,房)(地)(产)(泡)(沫)(最)(终)(崩)(溃)(,房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(迅)(速)(下)(跌)(,仅)(1997年)(下)(半)(年)(,泰)(国)(房)(价)(就)(缩)(水)(近)(30%,马)(来)(西)(亚)(房)(地)(产)(的)(平)(均)(交)(易)(量)(下)(降)(了)(37%,各)(项)(房)(价)(指)(数)(开)(始)(大)(幅)(回)(落)(。最)(为)(严)(重)(的)(是)(香)(港)(地)(区)(,危)(机)(爆)(发)(后)(香)(港)(楼)(市)(“跳)(水)(式)(”下)(跌)(,1997年)(至)(1998年)(一)(年)(时)(间)(,香)(港)(楼)(价)(急)(剧)(下)(跌)(50%-60%,成)(交)(大)(幅)(萎)(缩)(,房)(屋)(空)(置)(率)(上)(升)(。
5来)(自)(三)(种)(模)(式)(的)(启)(示)(
通)(过)(分)(析)(三)(个)(案)(例)(的)(汇)(率)(与)(房)(价)(变)(动)(,可)(得)(出)(以)(下)(启)(示)(:
1)产)(业)(结)(构)(和)(竞)(争)(力)(决)(定)(了)(汇)(率)(和)(经)(济)(的)(稳)(定)(性)(。在)(各)(国)(经)(济)(体)(中)(,产)(业)(结)(构)(和)(竞)(争)(力)(是)(对)(外)(贸)(易)(结)(构)(的)(主)(要)(基)(础)(。产)(业)(结)(构)(越)(复)(杂)(越)(有)(竞)(争)(力)((包)(括)(数)(量)(和)(质)(量)(),该)(国)(的)(汇)(率)(结)(构)(就)(更)(稳)(定)(,出)(现)(骤)(跌)(骤)(升)(的)(可)(能)(性)(越)(小)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(的)(经)(济)(发)(展)(主)(要)(依)(靠)(能)(源)(和)(原)(材)(料)(出)(口)(。单)(一)(的)(经)(济)(结)(构)(下)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(风)(险)(较)(高)(,当)(世)(界)(经)(济)(形)(势)(、国)(际)(能)(源)(格)(局)(、国)(际)(能)(源)(价)(格)(出)(现)(变)(化)(,就)(会)(给)(经)(济)(造)(成)(很)(大)(的)(打)(击)(,因)(此)(政)(府)(只)(能)(通)(过)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(来)(改)(善)(贸)(易)(条)(件)(。日)(本)(作)(为)(一)(个)(制)(造)(业)(强)(国)(,出)(口)(产)(品)(以)(高)(级)(工)(业)(制)(成)(品)(为)(主)(,可)(以)(通)(过)(产)(业)(转)(移)(、技)(术)(升)(级)(等)(具)(有)(很)(强)(的)(抗)(风)(险)(能)(力)(,而)(不)(一)(定)(诉)(诸)(于)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(。
国)(家)(对)(冲)(汇)(率)(下)(跌)(风)(险)(的)(一)(个)(重)(要)(手)(段)(就)(是)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(。外)(汇)(储)(备)(/年)(进)(口)(额)(可)(以)(衡)(量)(一)(个)(国)(家)(的)(外)(储)(应)(对)(能)(力)(。中)(国)(和)(日)(本)(的)(外)(储)(规)(模)(足)(以)(应)(对)(短)(期)(汇)(率)(下)(跌)(的)(风)(险)(,而)(俄)(罗)(斯)(由)(于)(产)(业)(结)(构)(单)(一)(,08年)(后)(油)(价)(下)(跌)(导)(致)(其)(外)(储)(规)(模)(下)(降)(,抗)(汇)(率)(下)(跌)(风)(险)(能)(力)(在)(14年)(降)(至)(最)(低)(。泰)(国)(作)(为)(劳)(动)(密)(集)(型)(制)(造)(品)(出)(口)(国)(,外)(储)(规)(模)(始)(终)(低)(于)(该)(国)(的)(年)(进)(口)(额)(,汇)(率)(风)(险)(较)(高)(。
2)在)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,金)(融)(体)(系)(不)(健)(全)(会)(加)(速)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(。根)(据)(不)(可)(能)(三)(角)(,资)(本)(自)(由)(流)(动)(、汇)(率)(稳)(定)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(有)(效)(性)(三)(者)(不)(可)(能)(同)(时)(兼)(顾)(。对)(于)(俄)(罗)(斯)(和)(东)(南)(亚)(四)(小)(虎)(这)(些)(经)(济)(结)(构)(单)(一)(、金)(融)(体)(系)(尚)(不)(健)(全)(的)(地)(区)(而)(言)(,资)(本)(项)(目)(的)(完)(全)(放)(开)(具)(有)(相)(当)(大)(的)(风)(险)(。在)(内)(外)(部)(流)(动)(性)(充)(裕)(时)(,如)(果)(该)(国)(实)(体)(经)(济)(的)(回)(报)(率)(不)(高)(,资)(本)(会)(进)(入)(房)(地)(产)(等)(资)(产)(领)(域)(进)(行)(投)(机)(;而)(当)(流)(动)(性)(逆)(转)(时)(,由)(于)(资)(本)(项)(目)(的)(开)(放)(,资)(金)(可)(以)(在)(毫)(无)(障)(碍)(的)(情)(况)(下)(逃)(出)(去)(,加)(速)(货)(币)(贬)(值)(。
3)在)(三)(种)(模)(式)(下)(,房)(价)(走)(高)(都)(是)(在)(汇)(率)(环)(境)(发)(生)(变)(化)(导)(致)(国)(内)(流)(动)(性)(过)(剩)(引)(起)(的)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(在)(2003年)(后)(卢)(布)(随)(着)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(走)(强)(而)(开)(始)(缓)(慢)(连)(续)(升)(值)(,国)(际)(资)(本)(蜂)(拥)(而)(入)(,加)(上)(国)(内)(基)(准)(利)(率)(连)(续)(下)(调)(,房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(上)(升)(。日)(本)(则)(在)(签)(订)(“广)(场)(协)(议)(”后)(为)(了)(避)(免)(日)(元)(升)(值)(对)(国)(内)(经)(济)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(而)(持)(续)(大)(幅)(降)(息)(。1991-1996年)(东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(在)(金)(融)(自)(由)(化)(下)(国)(际)(资)(本)(大)(幅)(流)(入)(。在)(实)(体)(回)(报)(低)(迷)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,日)(本)(和)(东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(的)(过)(剩)(流)(动)(性)(涌)(入)(资)(产)(领)(域)(,推)(升)(股)(市)(房)(市)(价)(格)(。
4)三)(种)(模)(式)(下)(,政)(府)(和)(央)(行)(干)(预)(的)(对)(象)(都)(是)(汇)(率)(,房)(价)(的)(变)(动)(则)(是)(应)(对)(汇)(率)(变)(动)(的)(结)(果)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(单)(一)(的)(产)(品)(结)(构)(和)(薄)(弱)(的)(外)(储)(规)(模)(决)(定)(了)(俄)(央)(行)(无)(法)(对)(抗)(国)(际)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(和)(能)(源)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(引)(发)(的)(卢)(布)(贬)(值)(。在)(连)(续)(提)(高)(基)(准)(利)(率)(失)(效)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,俄)(罗)(斯)(放)(弃)(干)(预)(卢)(布)(汇)(率)(,大)(幅)(贬)(值)(。房)(价)(则)(在)(俄)(罗)(斯)(央)(行)(连)(续)(5次)(下)(调)(基)(准)(利)(率)(的)(情)(况)(下)(维)(持)(了)(震)(荡)(上)(行)(的)(走)(势)(。日)(本)(错)(误)(的)(估)(计)(了)(日)(元)(升)(值)(的)(不)(利)(影)(响)(而)(连)(续)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(,导)(致)(了)(严)(重)(的)(资)(产)(价)(格)(泡)(沫)(。在)(泡)(沫)(不)(断)(膨)(胀)(的)(压)(力)(下)(,日)(本)(政)(府)(采)(取)(了)(严)(厉)(的)(行)(政)(措)(施)(和)(紧)(缩)(性)(货)(币)(政)(策)(主)(动)(挤)(泡)(沫)(,导)(致)(了)(房)(地)(产)(价)(格)(的)(暴)(跌)(。东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(在)(巨)(量)(的)(外)(债)(和)(国)(际)(投)(资)(者)(的)(做)(空)(压)(力)(下)(,一)(开)(始)(试)(图)(守)(住)(固)(定)(汇)(率)(,为)(了)(避)(免)(大)(量)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(和)(提)(高)(做)(空)(成)(本)(,各)(国)(纷)(纷)(提)(高)(利)(率)(,在)(国)(外)(流)(动)(性)(流)(失)(和)(国)(内)(紧)(缩)(性)(政)(策)(的)(双)(重)(挤)(压)(下)(,汇)(率)(失)(守)(,房)(价)(暴)(跌)(。
5)不)(同)(于)(三)(种)(模)(式)(,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(短)(期)(有)(压)(力)(,但)(不)(具)(备)(长)(期)(贬)(值)(的)(基)(础)(。俄)(罗)(斯)(是)(能)(源)(价)(格)(下)(跌)(带)(动)(卢)(布)(贬)(值)(;日)(元)(是)(在)(“广)(场)(协)(议)(”干)(预)(下)(升)(值)(;东)(南)(亚)(的)(货)(币)(则)(是)(在)(资)(本)(项)(目)(开)(放)(下)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(和)(国)(际)(投)(机)(资)(本)(做)(空)(压)(力)(下)(贬)(值)(的)(。不)(同)(于)(俄)(罗)(斯)(、日)(本)(和)(东)(南)(亚)(各)(国)(,目)(前)(中)(国)(尚)(未)(实)(现)(资)(本)(项)(目)(的)(完)(全)(开)(放)(,不)(会)(出)(现)(大)(规)(模)(资)(本)(外)(逃)(和)(恶)(意)(做)(空)(人)(民)(币)(的)(情)(况)(。人)(民)(币)(并)(不)(具)(备)(长)(期)(贬)(值)(的)(基)(础)(,虽)(然)(当)(前)(中)(国)(经)(济)(L型)(而)(美)(国)(弱)(复)(苏)(,但)(只)(要)(中)(国)(能)(够)(成)(功)(推)(进)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(,经)(济)(有)(望)(实)(现)(中)(速)(增)(长)(,增)(长)(中)(枢)(和)(资)(本)(回)(报)(率)(高)(于)(美)(国)(。虽)(然)(两)(国)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(不)(在)(一)(个)(轨)(道)(上)(,中)(国)(货)(币)(政)(策)(回)(归)(中)(性)(稳)(健)(,但)(美)(联)(储)(也)(不)(具)(备)(高)(频)(加)(息)(的)(条)(件)(。因)(此)(,除)(非)(中)(国)(未)(来)(出)(现)(大)(的)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(,人)(民)(币)(大)(概)(率)(不)(会)(出)(现)(长)(期)(和)(快)(速)(贬)(值)(的)(极)(端)(情)(况)(。同)(时)(,当)(前)(中)(国)(外)(储)(规)(模)(巨)(大)(,足)(以)(应)(对)(短)(期)(汇)(率)(下)(跌)(和)(资)(本)(流)(出)(风)(险)(。即)(使)(如)(此)(,仍)(需)(留)(意)(短)(期)(由)(于)(美)(联)(储)(第)(二)(次)(加)(息)(预)(期)(、美)(元)(走)(强)(、国)(内)(房)(地)(产)(调)(控)(、经)(济)(再)(度)(下)(行)(等)(背)(景)(下)(的)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(和)(资)(本)(流)(出)(压)(力)(。
6)此)(轮)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(主)(要)(是)(货)(币)(现)(象)(,新)(一)(轮)(调)(控)(意)(味)(着)(小)(周)(期)(结)(束)(,这)(一)(轮)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(接)(近)(尾)(声)(,但)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(长)(周)(期)(仍)(有)(城)(市)(化)(、经)(济)(有)(望)(中)(速)(增)(长)(等)(基)(本)(面)(支)(撑)(,未)(来)(将)(呈)(“总)(量)(放)(缓)(、区)(域)(分)(化)(”的)(新)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(特)(征)(。长)(周)(期)(视)(角)(下)(,中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(尚)(有)(基)(本)(面)(支)(撑)(:城)(镇)(化)(率)(56.1%,还)(有)(一)(定)(空)(间)(;城)(镇)(化)(进)(入)(第)(二)(阶)(段)(,人)(口)(从)(农)(村)(和)(三)(四)(线)(向)(一)(二)(线)(大)(都)(市)(圈)(迁)(移)(,未)(来)(房)(市)(将)(呈)(“总)(量)(放)(缓)(、区)(域)(分)(化)(”的)(新)(特)(征)(;如)(果)(转)(型)(成)(功)(,未)(来)(中)(国)(经)(济)(有)(望)(实)(现)(中)(速)(增)(长)(。未)(来)(房)(市)(区)(域)(分)(化)(将)(越)(来)(越)(明)(显)(,一)(二)(线)(人)(口)(迁)(入)(但)(土)(地)(供)(给)(慢)(,房)(市)(将)(日)(趋)(货)(币)(金)(融)(化)(,未)(来)(一)(二)(线)(房)(市)(三)(种)(前)(景)(:货)(币)((货)(币)(供)(应)(增)(速)(、利)(率)(、信)(贷)(杠)(杆)(决)(定)(的)(综)(合)(货)(币)(金)(融)(环)(境)()中)(性)(,房)(价)(横)(盘)(;货)(币)(超)(发)(,房)(价)(大)(涨)(;货)(币)(收)(紧)(,房)(价)(调)(整)(。十)(次)(危)(机)(九)(次)(地)(产)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(和)(住)(宅)(投)(资)(已)(经)(告)(别)(高)(增)(长)(时)(代)(,房)(地)(产)(政)(策)(应)(适)(应)(“总)(量)(放)(缓)(、结)(构)(分)(化)(”新)(发)(展)(阶)(段)(特)(征)(,避)(免)(寄)(希)(望)(于)(刺)(激)(房)(地)(产)(重)(回)(高)(增)(长)(的)(泡)(沫)(风)(险)(,面)(对)(结)(构)(性)(和)(体)(制)(性)(问)(题)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(出)(路)(在)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(破)(冰)(攻)(坚)(。当)(前)(中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(尚)(具)(备)(经)(济)(有)(望)(中)(速)(增)(长)(、城)(镇)(化)(还)(有)(一)(定)(空)(间)(等)(基)(本)(面)(有)(利)(因)(素)(,如)(果)(调)(控)(得)(当)(,尚)(有)(转)(机)(。
理)(财)(5年)(,从)(月)(入)(5千)(到)(月)(入)(10万)(元)(
她)(用)(五)(年)(的)(时)(间)(,从)(一)(个)(理)(财)(小)(白)(蜕)(变)(成)(一)(个)(理)(财)(网)(红)(。从)(曾)(经)(的)(月)(入)(5千)(到)(5年)(后)(月)(入)(10万)(元)(,她)(是)(如)(何)(做)(到)(的)(?关)(注)(“首)(席)(理)(财)(师)(”告)(诉)(你)(如)(何)(投)(资)(理)(财)(跑)(赢)(市)(场)(收)(益)(率)(。实)(现)(财)(务)(自)(由)(,安)(全)(又)(增)(值)(的)(投)(资)(理)(财)(规)(划)(都)(在)(这)(里)(。
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