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巴伦周刊:近日大涨或只是开始

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月21日 22:04:38
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(原)(标)(题)(:巴)(伦)(周)(刊)(:近)(日)(大)(涨)(或)(只)(是)(开)(始)(眼)(下)(正)(是)(入)(手)(黄)(金)(的)(合)(适)(时)(机)(
FX168财)(经)(报)(社)((香)(港)()讯)(专)(业)(财)(经)(周)(刊)(《巴)(伦)(周)(刊)(》周)(六)((1月)(6日)()撰)(文)(指)(出)(,自)(2011年)(9月)(触)(及)(1900美)(元)(/盎)(司)(这)(一)(历)(史)(高)(位)(以)(来)(,黄)(金)(一)(直)(是)(令)(人)(失)(望)(的)(投)(资)(。但)(在)(过)(去)(四)(周)(内)(,金)(价)(突)(然)(上)(涨)(了)(6%,至)(当)(前)(的)(1320美)(元)(/盎)(司)(上)(方)(,这)(使)(得)(一)(些)(投)(资)(者)(寻)(思)(,市)(场)(对)(黄)(金)(和)(金)(矿)(股)(的)(温)(和)(假)(设)(是)(否)(需)(要)(重)(新)(考)(虑)(。
TocquevilleManagement董)(事)(长)(、TocquevilleGoldFund联)(席)(经)(理)(JohnHathaway表)(示)(:“我)(认)(为)(没)(有)(人)(会)(预)(料)(到)(这)(种)(情)(况)(的)(出)(现)(,我)(想)(知)(道)(华)(尔)(街)(的)(预)(测)(者)(们)(还)(有)(什)(么)(错)(。对)(我)(来)(说)(,黄)(金)(看)(起)(来)(很)(强)(劲)(,此)(轮)(上)(涨)(并)(不)(都)(是)(短)(期)(的)(。”
自)(2013年)(年)(中)(以)(来)(,金)(价)(一)(直)(处)(于)(约)(1050至)(1415美)(元)(/盎)(司)(区)(间)(内)(。高)(盛)(在)(最)(近)(的)(一)(份)(报)(告)(中)(预)(测)(,未)(来)(两)(年)(内)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(的)(需)(求)(将)(推)(升)(金)(价)(至)(1375美)(元)(/盎)(司)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(从)(最)(近)(的)(水)(平)(上)(只)(上)(涨)(4%。
Hathaway未)(谈)(及)(具)(体)(的)(价)(格)(目)(标)(,他)(只)(是)(表)(示)(,在)(未)(来)(两)(到)(三)(年)(内)(,黄)(金)(的)(价)(格)(将)(“大)(幅)(上)(涨)(”,这)(一)(观)(点)(在)(华)(尔)(街)(并)(没)(有)(得)(到)(广)(泛)(认)(同)(。然)(而)(,如)(再)(经)(历)(几)(周)(类)(似)(过)(去)(几)(周)(的)(涨)(势)(,可)(能)(会)(改)(变)(投)(资)(者)(的)(想)(法)(。
尽)(管)(黄)(金)(有)(多)(种)(工)(业)(用)(途)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(的)(财)(富)(增)(长)(也)(增)(加)(了)(对)(黄)(金)(首)(饰)(的)(需)(求)(,但)(投)(资)(者)(通)(常)(会)(将)(黄)(金)(作)(为)(对)(冲)(通)(胀)(的)(工)(具)(,并)(在)(动)(荡)(时)(期)(寻)(求)(庇)(护)(。反)(对)(突)(破)(的)(理)(由)(是)(缺)(乏)(地)(缘)(政)(治)(威)(胁)(,预)(计)(美)(国)(股)(市)(将)(在)(2018年)(继)(续)(上)(涨)(,美)(联)(储)(将)(在)(今)(年)(晚)(些)(时)(候)(加)(息)(。黄)(金)(不)(会)(带)(来)(收)(益)(,且)(需)(要)(花)(钱)(去)(储)(存)(,其)(通)(常)(在)(股)(市)(和)(短)(期)(利)(率)(上)(升)(时)(表)(现)(不)(那)(么)(好)(。
然)(而)(,其)(他)(的)(进)(展)(表)(明)(,这)(可)(能)(是)(开)(始)(建)(立)(或)(增)(加)(金)(属)(和)(矿)(业)(股)(票)(头)(寸)(的)(合)(适)(时)(机)(。看)(涨)(观)(点)(的)(核)(心)(是)(押)(注)(美)(元)(持)(续)(下)(跌)(和)(通)(胀)(再)(度)(上)(升)(。
当)(美)(元)(下)(跌)(时)(,黄)(金)(和)(其)(他)(以)(美)(元)(计)(价)(的)(资)(产)(,包)(括)(石)(油)(,通)(常)(会)(上)(涨)(。这)(是)(因)(为)(它)(们)(对)(其)(他)(货)(币)(持)(有)(者)(来)(说)(变)(得)(更)(便)(宜)(,这)(通)(常)(会)(导)(致)(更)(高)(的)(需)(求)(。美)(元)(在)(过)(去)(的)(一)(年)(里)(了)(下)(跌)(近)(10%,提)(振)(黄)(金)(价)(格)(在)(同)(一)(时)(期)(内)(攀)(升)(了)(约)(12%,美)(元)(有)(可)(能)(会)(继)(续)(贬)(值)(,特)(别)(是)(在)(欧)(洲)(和)(中)(国)(制)(造)(业)(活)(动)(加)(速)(,各)(大)(央)(行)(开)(始)(扭)(转)(过)(去)(十)(年)(宽)(松)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(情)(形)(下)(。
至)(于)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(,巴)(伦)(周)(刊)(和)(其)(他)(一)(些)(市)(场)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,在)(经)(历)(了)(十)(年)(的)(微)(弱)(变)(化)(之)(后)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(扩)(张)(最)(终)(会)(推)(高)(商)(品)(和)(服)(务)(的)(价)(格)(。
即)(便)(市)(场)(日)(益)(接)(受)(比)(特)(币)(等)(加)(密)(货)(币)(,未)(来)(几)(年)(改)(善)(投)(资)(者)(对)(黄)(金)(的)(投)(资)(情)(绪)(也)(有)(可)(能)(会)(有)(所)(改)(善)(。二)(者)(均)(被)(认)(为)(是)(价)(值)(的)(储)(藏)(手)(段)(,而)(数)(字)(货)(币)(的)(主)(要)(吸)(引)(力)(在)(于)(它)(不)(受)(政)(府)(监)(管)(,而)(这)(也)(是)(黄)(金)(的)(属)(性)(。此)(外)(,与)(比)(特)(币)(相)(比)(,黄)(金)(的)(交)(易)(价)(格)(要)(低)(得)(多)(,而)(且)(以)(金)(条)(和)(金)(币)(形)(式)(持)(有)(。
除)(了)(购)(买)(黄)(金)(以)(外)(,投)(资)(者)(还)(可)(以)(通)(过)(SPDRGoldTrust获)(得)(黄)(金)(敞)(口)(,该)(交)(易)(所)(交)(易)(基)(金)(资)(产)(规)(模)(达)(353亿)(美)(元)(。该)(基)(金)(在)(过)(去)(的)(12个)(月)(里)(上)(涨)(了)(13%。
拥)(有)(77亿)(美)(元)(的)(资)(产)(的)(VanEckVectorsGoldMiners(GDX),主)(要)(针)(对)(纽)(蒙)(特)(矿)(业)((NEM)和)(巴)(里)(克)(黄)(金)((ABX)等)(大)(型)(金)(矿)(商)(,而)(资)(产)(规)(模)(更)(小)(的)(VanEckVectorsJuniorGoldMiners(GDXJ)追)(踪)(规)(模)(较)(小)(、投)(机)(性)(更)(强)(的)(公)(司)(。GDX在)(过)(去)(一)(年)(中)(上)(涨)(了)(8%,而)(GDXJ上)(涨)(了)(1.7%,尽)(管)(这)(两)(个)(指)(数)(都)(从)(2016年)(的)(低)(点)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(。从)(历)(史)(上)(来)(看)(,在)(黄)(金)(牛)(市)(中)(,初)(级)(矿)(业)(股)(票)(的)(表)(现)(优)(于)(大)(盘)(股)(。
从)(理)(论)(上)(讲)(,当)(金)(价)(上)(涨)(时)(,一)(篮)(子)(主)(要)(矿)(业)(股)(票)(应)(该)(会)(跑)(赢)(大)(盘)(,因)(为)(这)(是)(由)(于)(收)(益)(增)(长)(所)(带)(来)(的)(杠)(杆)(效)(应)(。但)(现)(实)(并)(不)(总)(是)(如)(此)(。并)(不)(是)(所)(有)(的)(矿)(商)(都)(能)(得)(到)(良)(好)(的)(管)(理)(,而)(诸)(如)(大)(量)(举)(债)(购)(买)(矿)(山)(、或)(经)(营)(无)(效)(益)(的)(煤)(矿)(等)(失)(误)(,可)(能)(会)(对)(股)(价)(表)(现)(造)(成)(代)(价)(高)(昂)(的)(影)(响)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
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