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离岸人民币大涨与在岸倒挂

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年11月21日 22:06:21
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(  “促)(进)(形)(成)(境)(内)(外)(一)(致)(的)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(”是)(8月)(11日)(央)(行)(对)(人)(民)(币)(中)(间)(价)(进)(行)(调)(整)(时)(提)(出)(的)(重)(要)(目)(标)(之)(一)(。此)(后)(在)(市)(场)(的)(共)(同)(见)(证)(下)(,离)(岸)((CNH)与)(在)(岸)(人)(民)(币)((CNY)汇)(率)(价)(差)(不)(断)(收)(窄)(。昨)(日)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(一)(度)(反)(超)(在)(岸)(汇)(率)(出)(现)(“倒)(挂)(”走)(势)(。
  数)(据)(显)(示)(,昨)(日)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)((CNH)于)(在)(岸)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(收)(盘)(后)(迅)(速)(上)(升)(超)(过)(250个)(基)(点)(,并)(一)(举)(触)(及)(6.3404,创)(下)(新)(汇)(改)(以)(来)(的)(新)(高)(。另)(一)(方)(面)(,截)(至)(收)(盘)(,当)(日)(境)(内)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(定)(在)(6.3636,也)(就)(是)(说)(,一)(度)(因)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(而)(放)(大)(到)(超)(过)(1000个)(基)(点)(的)(境)(内)(外)(汇)(差)(,不)(仅)(消)(失)(,还)(出)(现)(倒)(挂)(。
  分)(析)(人)(士)(指)(出)(,由)(于)(眼)(下)(人)(民)(币)(尚)(未)(实)(现)(完)(全)(自)(由)(兑)(换)(,人)(民)(币)(离)(岸)(市)(场)(和)(在)(岸)(市)(场)(并)(不)(直)(接)(联)(通)(,因)(此)(价)(差)(一)(直)(存)(在)(。如)(果)(出)(口)(企)(业)(在)(境)(内)(做)(购)(汇)(,然)(后)(跑)(到)(香)(港)(地)(区)(结)(汇)(,就)(会)(自)(然)(产)(生)(套)(利)(空)(间)(,而)(在)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(下)(,套)(利)(空)(间)(就)(更)(可)(观)(。目)(前)(这)(一)(套)(利)(空)(间)(的)(消)(失)(,也)(正)(体)(现)(了)(央)(行)(新)(汇)(改)(的)(成)(功)(。
  离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(罕)(见)(大)(涨)(反)(超)(在)(岸)(汇)(率)(
  某)(商)(业)(银)(行)(外)(汇)(交)(易)(员)(对)(《第)(一)(财)(经)(日)(报)(》记)(者)(表)(示)(,昨)(日)(离)(岸)(市)(场)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(反)(超)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(以)(及)(当)(日)(中)(间)(价)(的)(情)(况)(并)(不)(常)(见)(,是)(自)(去)(年)(11月)(以)(来)(首)(次)(。
  昨)(日)(,在)(岸)(市)(场)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(中)(间)(价)(报)(6.3660,较)(上)(一)(交)(易)(日)(上)(调)(0.11%,创)(9月)(2日)(以)(来)(最)(大)(涨)(幅)(。
  同)(日)(盘)(中)(,在)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(基)(本)(平)(稳)(,开)(盘)(后)(人)(民)(币)(快)(速)(由)(6.3657上)(涨)(至)(6.3619,此)(后)(一)(直)(维)(持)(在)(6.3640附)(近)(波)(动)(,最)(终)(收)(盘)(于)(6.3636,小)(幅)(上)(涨)(0.08%,创)(一)(周)(新)(高)(,前)(日)(则)(收)(于)(6.3690。
  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,昨)(日)(下)(午)(3点)(过)(后)(,在)(岸)(市)(场)(人)(民)(币)(涨)(幅)(明)(显)(扩)(大)(,有)(外)(汇)(交)(易)(员)(表)(示)(,有)(中)(资)(大)(行)(在)(6.3640附)(近)(抛)(售)(美)(元)(拉)(升)(汇)(率)(,但)(接)(近)(收)(盘)(时)(,人)(民)(币)(再)(度)(小)(幅)(回)(落)(。昨)(日)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(即)(期)(成)(交)(量)(为)(229.7亿)(美)(元)(,较)(本)(周)(一)(243亿)(美)(元)(的)(成)(交)(量)(略)(有)(回)(落)(。
  与)(在)(岸)(市)(场)(的)(平)(稳)(走)(势)(不)(同)(,昨)(日)(离)(岸)(市)(场)((CNH)人)(民)(币)(涨)(势)(大)(好)(,对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(一)(改)(常)(态)(超)(过)(在)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(逾)(300个)(基)(点)(。
  此)(前)(,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(已)(连)(续)(三)(日)(上)(涨)(,昨)(日)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(更)(是)(大)(涨)(0.42%,逾)(270个)(基)(点)(。昨)(日)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(开)(盘)(价)(位)(6.3674,盘)(中)(人)(民)(币)(最)(高)(涨)(至)(6.3404,截)(至)(发)(稿)(时)(,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(仍)(在)(高)(位)(徘)(徊)(,整)(体)(维)(持)(上)(涨)(趋)(势)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(报)(6.3609。
  业)(内)(人)(士)(分)(析)(称)(,目)(前)(离)(岸)(与)(在)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(价)(差)(已)(经)(明)(显)(收)(窄)(,由)(新)(汇)(改)(前)(每)(日)(几)(百)(点)(的)(价)(差)(缩)(小)(至)(目)(前)(不)(足)(百)(点)(,有)(效)(地)(遏)(制)(了)(境)(外)(套)(利)(机)(制)(,预)(计)(境)(内)(外)(价)(差)(再)(度)(明)(显)(扩)(大)(的)(可)(能)(性)(已)(经)(有)(限)(。
  此)(前)(一)(段)(时)(间)(,境)(外)(人)(民)(币)(此)(前)(一)(直)(比)(境)(内)(便)(宜)(,但)(从)(9月)(23日)(开)(始)(到)(29日)(的)(最)(高)(点)(,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(在)(短)(短)(5个)(交)(易)(日)(上)(涨)(1014个)(基)(点)(,升)(值)(幅)(度)(达)(到)(了)(1.57%,现)(在)(的)(情)(况)(是)(,境)(外)(人)(民)(币)(已)(经)(比)(境)(内)(贵)(了)(。
  8月)(11日)(央)(行)(在)(宣)(布)(对)(于)(人)(民)(币)(中)(间)(价)(进)(行)(调)(整)(后)(,对)(于)(下)(一)(步)(推)(进)(汇)(改)(的)(安)(排)(也)(进)(行)(了)(明)(确)(阐)(述)(,其)(中)(包)(括)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(形)(成)(机)(制)(改)(革)(继)(续)(朝)(着)(市)(场)(化)(方)(向)(迈)(进)(,更)(大)(程)(度)(地)(发)(挥)(市)(场)(供)(求)(在)(汇)(率)(形)(成)(机)(制)(中)(的)(决)(定)(性)(作)(用)(,以)(及)(促)(进)(形)(成)(境)(内)(外)(一)(致)(的)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(。
  市)(场)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(扭)(转)(
  连)(日)(来)(人)(民)(币)(在)(岸)(与)(离)(岸)(汇)(率)(的)(同)(步)(持)(续)(上)(涨)(,在)(缩)(小)(境)(内)(外)(价)(差)(的)(同)(时)(,也)(明)(显)(扭)(转)(了)(新)(汇)(改)(以)(来)(市)(场)(对)(于)(人)(民)(币)(的)(谨)(慎)(预)(期)(。
  分)(析)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,虽)(然)(国)(庆)(长)(假)(将)(至)(,为)(市)(场)(带)(来)(很)(多)(不)(确)(定)(因)(素)(,但)(预)(计)(短)(期)(内)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(水)(平)(将)(会)(整)(体)(趋)(稳)(。
  “中)(国)(采)(取)(措)(施)(遏)(制)(资)(本)(外)(流)(以)(及)(相)(关)(手)(段)(来)(维)(护)(市)(场)(对)(汇)(率)(稳)(定)(的)(信)(心)(,减)(轻)(了)(市)(场)(的)(忧)(虑)(。目)(前)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(已)(有)(所)(减)(弱)(,而)(9月)(份)(资)(本)(外)(流)(压)(力)(预)(计)(不)(会)(像)(8月)(份)(那)(么)(强)(。”星)(展)(银)(行)((香)(港)()财)(资)(市)(场)(部)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)(王)(良)(享)(说)(道)(。
  近)(日)(,中)(国)(官)(方)(多)(次)(在)(公)(开)(场)(合)(强)(调)(人)(民)(币)(不)(具)(有)(贬)(值)(基)(础)(以)(及)(美)(国)(对)(于)(人)(民)(币)(加)(入)(特)(别)(提)(款)(权)((SDR)态)(度)(缓)(和)(等)(因)(素)(共)(同)(推)(动)(下)(,境)(外)(对)(于)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(较)(新)(汇)(改)(后)(已)(出)(现)(明)(显)(改)(善)(。
  此)(外)(,近)(期)(中)(国)(在)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(开)(放)(、人)(民)(币)(国)(际)(化)(领)(域)(不)(断)(取)(得)(最)(新)(进)(展)(,也)(让)(市)(场)(更)(加)(看)(好)(人)(民)(币)(未)(来)(走)(势)(。
  “中)(国)(的)(金)(融)(改)(革)(国)(际)(化)(势)(头)(不)(减)(,我)(们)(依)(然)(有)(理)(由)(保)(持)(乐)(观)(。举)(例)(来)(说)(,中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(最)(近)(决)(定)(在)(伦)(敦)(发)(售)(以)(人)(民)(币)(计)(价)(的)(债)(券)(,此)(举)(向)(我)(们)(展)(示)(了)(人)(民)(币)(不)(断)(国)(际)(化)(带)(来)(的)(市)(场)(宏)(图)(。作)(为)(第)(一)(批)(人)(民)(币)(离)(岸)(中)(心)(之)(一)(,伦)(敦)(无)(疑)(已)(经)(具)(备)(了)(先)(发)(优)(势)(,它)(的)(成)(功)(发)(展)(还)(将)(在)(全)(球)(复)(制)(,世)(界)(各)(地)(将)(出)(现)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(人)(民)(币)(离)(岸)(交)(易)(中)(心)(。”彭)(博)(分)(析)(师)(TaranKhera说)(道)(。
  对)(于)(8月)(11日)(新)(汇)(改)(引)(发)(的)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(、资)(本)(流)(出)(等)(“副)(作)(用)(”,央)(行)(调)(查)(统)(计)(司)(司)(长)(盛)(松)(成)(9月)(25日)(在)(上)(海)(参)(加)(论)(坛)(时)(曾)(指)(出)(,这)(些)(都)(是)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(的)(短)(期)(临)(时)(性)(反)(应)(。
  从)(国)(外)(环)(境)(看)(,最)(近)(半)(年)(,人)(们)(预)(期)(美)(元)(加)(息)(,投)(机)(资)(金)(流)(向)(美)(国)(;从)(国)(内)(环)(境)(看)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,企)(业)(利)(润)(率)(下)(降)(、债)(务)(率)(提)(升)(较)(快)(,股)(市)(波)(动)(,利)(率)(下)(降)(等)(因)(素)(引)(发)(恐)(慌)(避)(险)(情)(绪)(;从)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(看)(,人)(民)(币)(离)(岸)(市)(场)(、在)(岸)(市)(场)(互)(相)(影)(响)(,境)(内)(外)(人)(民)(币)(市)(场)(出)(现)(套)(利)(机)(会)(,加)(速)(了)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(。
  “但)(以)(上)(这)(些)(因)(素)(大)(多)(是)(暂)(时)(的)(,中)(国)(对)(国)(际)(资)(金)(长)(期)(吸)(引)(力)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(。今)(年)(8月)(份)(,中)(国)(接)(受)(外)(商)(直)(接)(投)(资)(87.1亿)(美)(元)(,比)(去)(年)(同)(期)(多)(15.1亿)(美)(元)(,比)(今)(年)(7月)(份)(多)(4.9亿)(美)(元)(。”盛)(松)(成)(认)(为)(,选)(择)(在)(国)(内)(利)(率)(下)(降)(时)(期)(推)(动)(汇)(率)(改)(革)(,正)(当)(其)(时)(。
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