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前8月全球股市众生相:一枝独秀的美股和跌跌不休的A股

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年02月19日 09:40:34
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江苏快三全天多少期平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。前8月全球股市众生相:一枝独秀的美股和跌跌不休的A股

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(在)(美)(国)(股)(市)(走)(出)(十)(年)(长)(牛)(创)(新)(高)(的)(环)(境)(下)(,为)(何)(作)(为)(全)(球)(第)(二)(大)(经)(济)(体)(的)(中)(国)(反)(倒)(录)(得)(如)(此)(悲)(催)(的)(表)(现)(?这)(非)(常)(值)(得)(探)(讨)(和)(反)(思)(。
2
走)(出)(十)(年)(长)(牛)(的)(美)(国)(股)(市)(
2008年)(金)(融)(危)(机)(之)(后)(,伴)(随)(着)(美)(国)(的)(量)(化)(宽)(松)(政)(策)(对)(经)(济)(的)(刺)(激)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(开)(启)(新)(一)(轮)(强)(势)(复)(苏)(的)(周)(期)(,这)(为)(美)(股)(的)(近)(十)(年)(长)(牛)(打)(下)(了)(坚)(实)(的)(下)(层)(基)(础)(。从)(2009年)(3月)(的)(最)(低)(点)(算)(,美)(国)(的)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(指)(数)(至)(今)(上)(涨)(了)(4.87倍)(,标)(普)(500指)(数)(涨)(了)(2.95倍)(,道)(琼)(斯)(工)(业)(指)(数)(上)(涨)(了)(2.68倍)(,虽)(然)(不)(是)(全)(球)(涨)(幅)(最)(高)(的)(国)(家)(,但)(从)(综)(合)(体)(量)(比)(较)(看)(,当)(属)(表)(现)(好)(的)(市)(场)(。
而)(2018年)(至)(今)(,该)(三)(大)(股)(指)(依)(然)(强)(劲)(并)(且)(不)(断)(创)(出)(历)(史)(新)(高)(。仅)(从)(今)(年)(而)(论)(,最)(直)(接)(的)(功)(劳)(可)(能)(有)(2个)(方)(面)(:
一)(是)(随)(着)(美)(国)(经)(济)(活)(动)(持)(续)(强)(势)(叠)(加)(美)(联)(储)(的)(持)(续)(加)(息)(刺)(激)(,全)(球)(热)(钱)(流)(向)(美)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(直)(接)(导)(致)(资)(本)(充)(裕)(为)(股)(市)(提)(供)(了)(源)(源)(不)(断)(的)(水)(源)(;
二)(是)(以)(科)(技)(板)(块)(为)(首)(的)(美)(股)(公)(司)(持)(续)(受)(到)(资)(本)(的)(热)(捧)(,直)(接)(推)(高)(了)(指)(数)(。
一)(是)(随)(着)(美)(国)(经)(济)(活)(动)(持)(续)(强)(势)(叠)(加)(美)(联)(储)(的)(持)(续)(加)(息)(刺)(激)(,全)(球)(热)(钱)(流)(向)(美)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(直)(接)(导)(致)(资)(本)(充)(裕)(为)(股)(市)(提)(供)(了)(源)(源)(不)(断)(的)(水)(源)(;
二)(是)(以)(科)(技)(板)(块)(为)(首)(的)(美)(股)(公)(司)(持)(续)(受)(到)(资)(本)(的)(热)(捧)(,直)(接)(推)(高)(了)(指)(数)(。
据)(wind数)(据)(统)(计)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(,美)(股)(的)(信)(息)(技)(术)(板)(块)(的)(交)(易)(额)(高)(达)(10.97万)(亿)(美)(元)(,占)(美)(股)(市)(场)(总)(成)(交)(额)(的)(26.67%,科)(技)(科)(技)(板)(块)(受)(欢)(迎)(的)(程)(度)(。这)(也)(是)(为)(什)(么)(今)(年)(的)(纳)(斯)(达)(克)(指)(数)(大)(幅)(跑)(赢)(标)(普)(500和)(道)(琼)(斯)(工)(业)(指)(数)(近)(10个)(点)(的)(原)(因)(。
表)(现)(最)(突)(出)(的)(无)(疑)(是)(苹)(果)(、亚)(马)(逊)(、谷)(歌)(、微)(软)(、facebook为)(代)(表)(的)(科)(技)(股)(公)(司)((俗)(称)(FAAMG)。今)(年)(以)(来)(,苹)(果)(公)(司)(的)(市)(值)(在)(8月)(成)(功)(突)(破)(万)(亿)(美)(元)(大)(关)(,是)(为)(美)(股)(历)(史)(上)(首)(家)(;涨)(幅)(最)(大)(的)(是)(奈)(飞)(公)(司)(,达)(93.26%,并)(且)(今)(年)(以)(来)(其)(年)(内)(涨)(幅)(一)(度)(接)(近)(1.2倍)(。
而)(亚)(马)(逊)(公)(司)(年)(内)(涨)(幅)(也)(高)(达)(71.22%,市)(值)(增)(加)(了)(4000多)(亿)(美)(元)(至)(9766亿)(美)(元)(,成)(为)(继)(苹)(果)(公)(司)(之)(后)(的)(第)(二)(家)(极)(有)(可)(能)(很)(快)(突)(破)(万)(亿)(美)(元)(市)(值)(的)(公)(司)(。同)(时)(,亚)(马)(逊)(股)(价)(的)(暴)(涨)(,也)(一)(举)(把)(其)(创)(始)(人)(贝)(佐)(斯)(送)(上)(了)(世)(界)(首)(富)(的)(地)(位)(,并)(且)(身)(价)(远)(超)(排)(在)(排)(在)(跟)(后)(的)(比)(尔)(盖)(茨)(和)(巴)(菲)(特)(。
从)(美)(国)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(指)(标)(运)(行)(情)(况)(看)(,目)(前)(的)(先)(行)(指)(标)(依)(然)(非)(常)(健)(康)(:银)(行)(业)(的)(贷)(款)(违)(约)(率)(和)(美)(国)(的)(失)(业)(人)(数)(目)(前)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(周)(期)(的)(相)(对)(低)(位)(,而)(整)(个)(银)(行)(体)(系)(的)(贷)(款)(意)(愿)(和)(工)(业)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(增)(速)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(较)(为)(乐)(观)(的)(水)(平)(。
不)(过)(从)(利)(率)(差)(这)(个)(较)(为)(准)(确)(的)(先)(行)(指)(标)(看)(,美)(国)(10年)(期)(国)(债)(跟)(2年)(的)(国)(债)(收)(益)(率)(的)(差)(值)(在)(近)(几)(年)(收)(益)(率)(开)(始)(在)(明)(显)(收)(窄)(,但)(目)(前)(到)(零)(还)(有)(一)(段)(距)(离)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,美)(国)(目)(前)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(经)(济)(上)(行)(趋)(势)(,并)(且)(很)(可)(能)(继)(续)(维)(持)(相)(当)(一)(段)(时)(间)(。
3
强)(美)(元)(周)(期)(下)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(灾)(难)(
作)(为)(世)(界)(唯)(一)(货)(币)(锚)(的)(美)(元)(,其)(重)(启)(强)(势)(的)(加)(息)(周)(期)(在)(利)(好)(美)(国)(经)(济)(的)(同)(时)(,却)(给)(一)(些)(脆)(弱)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(带)(来)(了)(严)(重)(的)(外)(汇)(风)(险)(进)(而)(引)(发)(经)(济)(危)(机)(。
今)(年)(以)(来)(,新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(接)(连)(爆)(发)(外)(汇)(大)(地)(震)(,其)(中)(委)(内)(瑞)(拉)(玻)(利)(瓦)(尔)(、土)(耳)(其)(里)(拉)(及)(阿)(根)(廷)(比)(索)(的)(贬)(值)(幅)(度)(都)(超)(过)(了)(50%,而)(巴)(西)(雷)(亚)(尔)(、俄)(罗)(斯)(卢)(布)(、南)(非)(兰)(特)(及)(印)(度)(卢)(比)(相)(对)(美)(元)(都)(贬)(了)(10%以)(上)(。
就)(在)(今)(天)(,阿)(根)(廷)(的)(外)(汇)(再)(次)(遭)(到)(重)(挫)(,阿)(根)(廷)(比)(索)(兑)(美)(元)(盘)(中)(跌)(超)(22%,一)(路)(刷)(新)(历)(史)(最)(低)(位)(,并)(创)(下)(2015年)(以)(来)(最)(大)(单)(日)(跌)(幅)(,导)(致)(阿)(根)(廷)(被)(迫)(将)(利)(率)(从)(45%提)(升)(至)(60%。
而)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(际)(的)(股)(市)(也)(并)(不)(好)(过)(,虽)(然)(从)(股)(指)(走)(势)(看)(,土)(耳)(其)(、巴)(西)(、阿)(根)(廷)(等)(国)(的)(股)(指)(表)(现)(并)(没)(有)(太)(明)(显)(变)(化)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(因)(为)(货)(币)(贬)(值)(,其)(价)(值)(已)(经)(被)(大)(大)(缩)(水)(了)(。即)(使)(是)(强)(国)(俄)(罗)(斯)(,股)(指)(下)(跌)(6.8%叠)(加)(对)(卢)(布)(对)(美)(元)(贬)(值)(超)(过)(10%,实)(际)(上)(也)(是)(非)(常)(惨)(的)(表)(现)(了)(。
不)(过)(,印)(度)(在)(今)(年)(表)(现)(出)(了)(意)(料)(之)(外)(的)(崛)(起)(,股)(指)(大)(涨)(了)(13.38%,并)(且)(这)(并)(非)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(导)(致)(的)(虚)(涨)(,而)(是)(经)(济)(活)(动)(高)(速)(稳)(定)(发)(展)(所)(导)(致)(,算)(是)(一)(个)(非)(常)(值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(惊)(喜)(。从)(行)(内)(看)(,印)(度)(有)(着)(与)(中)(国)(一)(样)(庞)(大)(的)(人)(口)(基)(数)(和)(疆)(土)(面)(积)(,并)(且)(属)(于)(年)(轻)(型)(国)(家)(,还)(有)(无)(比)(可)(观)(的)(人)(口)(红)(利)(,一)(如)(十)(多)(年)(前)(的)(中)(国)(,因)(此)(其)(未)(来)(的)(成)(长)(空)(间)(无)(比)(巨)(大)(。现)(在)(越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(机)(构)(纷)(纷)(把)(目)(光)(投)(向)(了)(印)(度)(市)(场)(并)(进)(行)(了)(提)(前)(的)(布)(局)(,包)(括)(一)(些)(大)(型)(的)(跨)(国)(性)(企)(业)(也)(陆)(续)(打)(算)(在)(印)(度)(开)(辟)(市)(场)(抢)(占)(先)(机)(,如)(苹)(果)(、沃)(尔)(玛)(及)(国)(内)(的)(小)(米)(等)(各)(类)(巨)(头)(公)(司)(。
4
熊)(冠)(全)(球)(的)(中)(国)(股)(市)(
今)(年)(以)(来)(,如)(果)(说)(表)(现)(最)(差)(的)(股)(市)(,A股)(当)(之)(无)(愧)(。8月)(沪)(指)(全)(月)(下)(跌)(5.25%,再)(次)(逼)(近)(2016年)(2月)(股)(灾)(后)(创)(下)(的)(新)(低)(,而)(深)(成)(指)(跌)(7.77%、创)(业)(板)(指)(跌)(8.07%,中)(小)(板)(指)(跌)(7.99%,三)(大)(指)(数)(均)(刷)(新)(2016年)(股)(灾)(以)(来)(新)(低)(。而)(年)(初)(以)(来)(,深)(成)(指)(跌)(23.32%,熊)(冠)(全)(球)(主)(要)(股)(市)(指)(数)(。此)(外)(,创)(业)(板)(指)(跌)(18.11%,上)(证)(综)(指)(跌)(17.6%,分)(别)(位)(列)(第)(二)(、三)(。受)(A股)(拖)(累)(,恒)(生)(国)(企)(指)(数)(今)(年)(以)(来)(跌)(7.23%,恒)(生)(指)(数)(跌)(6.89%,均)(位)(列)(跌)(幅)(榜)(前)(列)(。
分)(行)(业)((申)(万)(一)(级)(行)(业)()来)(看)(,行)(业)(指)(数)(全)(数)(尽)(墨)(,其)(中)(,综)(合)(类)(、电)(气)(设)(备)(、传)(媒)(、有)(色)(金)(属)(四)(个)(行)(业)(指)(数)(跌)(幅)(超)(过)(30%,机)(械)(设)(备)(、电)(子)(、汽)(车)(、轻)(工)(制)(造)(、纺)(织)(服)(装)(、通)(信)(、公)(用)(事)(业)(、房)(地)(产)(等)(行)(业)(指)(数)(跌)(幅)(超)(过)(20%。
在)(2017年)(,A股)(曾)(演)(绎)(了)(一)(段)(令)(人)(记)(忆)(犹)(新)(的)(漂)(亮)(50结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(,但)(是)(随)(着)(年)(后)(中)(美)(贸)(易)(纠)(纷)(冲)(突)(加)(剧)(以)(及)(金)(融)(领)(域)(去)(杆)(杠)(深)(化)(下)(,漂)(亮)(50也)(加)(入)(杀)(跌)(的)(主)(力)(大)(军)(,A股)(呈)(现)(出)(一)(派)(无)(险)(可)(守)(、溃)(不)(成)(军)(的)(图)(景)(。
6月)(A股)(纳)(入)(MSCI指)(数)(,8月)(A股)(半)(年)(报)(,沪)(港)(通)(、深)(港)(通)(北)(向)(资)(金)(连)(续)(抄)(底)(、险)(资)(、社)(保)(基)(金)(加)(仓)(,都)(没)(能)(改)(变)(A股)(的)(颓)(态)(。
经)(过)(这)(几)(个)(月)(的)(杀)(跌)(,A股)(估)(值)(进)(一)(步)(回)(落)(,上)(证)(综)(指)(PE12.07倍)(,深)(成)(指)(18.9倍)(,都)(回)(到)(了)(历)(史)(低)(估)(值)(区)(间)(。
而)(A股)(极)(具)(代)(表)(性)(的)(中)(证)(500指)(数)(跌)(了)(如)(此)(之)(久)(后)(,市)(盈)(率)(百)(分)(位)(都)(跌)(到)(1.48%了)((即)(历)(史)(上)(100天)(中)(只)(有)(1天)(比)(今)(天)(贵)()。然)(而)(对)(比)(其)(9.07%的)(净)(资)(产)(收)(益)(率)(,18.35倍)(的)(市)(盈)(率)(及)(1.81倍)(的)(市)(净)(率)(,远)(远)(谈)(不)(上)(便)(宜)(。
原)(因)(何)(在)(?之)(前)(人)(们)(都)(习)(惯)(了)(A股)(应)(该)(高)(估)(值)(,然)(而)(时)(过)(境)(迁)(,“基)(准)(”是)(会)(变)(的)(,市)(盈)(率)(跌)(到)(十)(倍)(都)(很)(正)(常)(。正)(如)(房)(子)(的)(租)(售)(比)(,早)(晚)(走)(上)(A股)(的)(老)(路)(,以)(房)(租)(上)(涨)(一)(倍)(、房)(价)(下)(跌)(一)(倍)(的)(结)(合)(而)(“回)(归)(”。
同)(时)(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(在)(金)(融)(去)(杠)(杆)(收)(紧)(市)(场)(流)(动)(性)(以)(及)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(的)(持)(续)(压)(力)(下)(,A股)(绝)(大)(多)(数)(行)(业)(公)(司)(相)(继)(上)(演)(股)(价)(比)(惨)(的)(跳)(水)(,质)(押)(爆)(仓)(与)(债)(务)(违)(的)(雷)(频)(爆)(,其)(中)(几)(乎)(都)(是)(抗)(风)(险)(性)(较)(差)(的)(中)(小)(民)(营)(企)(业)(。
而)(另)(一)(方)(面)(,在)(上)(半)(年)(的)(业)(绩)(表)(现)(中)(出)(现)(了)(明)(显)(的)(现)(象)(,以)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(和)(大)(基)(建)(为)(代)(表)(的)(行)(业)(净)(利)(润)(增)(速)(排)(在)(最)(强)(,几)(乎)(实)(现)(翻)(倍)(增)(长)(,这)(些)(行)(业)(均)(以)(国)(企)(为)(主)(。
同)(时)(,从)(上)(半)(年)(A股)(公)(司)(的)(收)(入)(及)(净)(利)(润)(排)(行)(看)(,排)(在)(最)(前)(面)(的)(前)(20名)(,依)(然)(也)(还)(是)(以)(国)(企)(为)(主)(的)(企)(业)(,如)(银)(行)(金)(融)(、两)(桶)(油)(和)(几)(大)(建)(筑)(巨)(头)(。
民)(企)(与)(国)(企)(,一)(边)(比)(惨)(,一)(边)(盛)(宴)(,为)(什)(么)(会)(有)(这)(么)(大)(区)(别)(,这)(里)(不)(作)(分)(析)(,但)(值)(得)(深)(思)(和)(反)(思)(!
5
黄)(金)(失)(去)(了)(避)(险)(功)(能)(
值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,黄)(金)(一)(直)(以)(来)(被)(当)(做)(是)(对)(抗)(通)(胀)(和)(经)(济)(动)(乱)(最)(有)(效)(的)(工)(具)(,有)(着)(“盛)(世)(古)(董)(,乱)(世)(黄)(金)(”之)(美)(称)(,但)(从)(今)(年)(黄)(金)(的)(价)(格)(行)(情)(看)(,这)(一)(功)(能)(也)(失)(去)(了)(作)(用)(。毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,今)(年)(以)(来)(除)(了)(美)(国)(之)(外)(,绝)(大)(部)(分)(的)(国)(家)(的)(经)(济)(其)(实)(难)(言)(乐)(观)(,甚)(至)(一)(众)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(国)(家)(陆)(续)(陷)(入)(通)(胀)(危)(机)(乃)(至)(汇)(率)(崩)(溃)(境)(地)(,因)(此)(与)(乱)(世)(无)(疑)(。但)(截)(至)(今)(日)(,黄)(金)(期)(货)(的)(价)(格)(依)(然)(下)(跌)(超)(7%,并)(且)(在)(屡)(次)(某)(个)(国)(家)(出)(现)(严)(重)(汇)(率)(危)(机)(时)(黄)(金)(的)(即)(时)(表)(现)(也)(是)(几)(无)(相)(关)(。
在)(多)(数)(国)(家)(的)(货)(币)(出)(现)(贬)(值)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(资)(产)(面)(临)(不)(断)(缩)(水)(的)(危)(险)(情)(况)(下)(,黄)(金)(却)(失)(去)(了)(作)(用)(,未)(来)(我)(们)(的)(资)(产)(又)(该)(怎)(么)(办)(?
6
结)(语)(
现)(在)(时)(间)(已)(经)(进)(入)(多)(事)(之)(秋)(,统)(观)(全)(球)(市)(场)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(一)(枝)(独)(秀)(,美)(股)(也)(走)(出)(了)(十)(年)(长)(牛)(,但)(除)(其)(之)(外)(,多)(数)(国)(家)(却)(在)(索)(索)(发)(抖)(,甚)(至)(有)(的)(已)(经)(提)(前)(进)(入)(了)(寒)(冬)(。如)(今)(中)(国)(经)(济)(仍)(然)(面)(临)(着)(内)(忧)(外)(患)(的)(困)(局)(,前)(8月)(的)(中)(国)(股)(市)(已)(经)(熊)(冠)(全)(球)(,而)(剩)(下)(的)(时)(段)(依)(然)(难)(以)(乐)(观)(。
在)(这)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,对)(于)(投)(资)(,我)(们)(已)(经)(没)(有)(多)(少)(可)(供)(的)(选)(择)(,似)(乎)(唯)(一)(能)(做)(的)(,也)(只)(有)(尽)(量)(想)(办)(法)(保)(持)(资)(产)(不)(缩)(水)(,然)(后)(等)(待)(了)(!返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


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