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一味限制开发商供给,未必是理想的控房价办法

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月27日 23:14:51
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(值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,当)(市)(场)(中)(刚)(需)(人)(群)(增)(加)(并)(占)(据)(主)(导)(地)(位)(时)(,三)(线)(城)(市)(的)(房)(企)(不)(会)(有)(降)(价)(的)(动)(机)(,反)(而)(会)(通)(过)(捂)(盘)(待)(售)(等)(等)(方)(式)(保)(证)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(,这)(就)(使)(得)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(的)(涨)(幅)(并)(没)(有)(下)(降)(。
进)(一)(步)(看)(,从)(整)(体)(上)(看)(我)(国)(楼)(市)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(过)(热)(区)(间)(,还)(需)(要)(进)(一)(步)(实)(质)(性)(降)(温)(。
从)(统)(计)(局)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(可)(以)(发)(现)(,7月)(份)(新)(建)(住)(房)(环)(比)(涨)(幅)(超)(1%的)(城)(市)(39个)(,较)(6月)(增)(加)(2个)(,涨)(幅)(超)(过)(2%的)(城)(市)(多)(达)(13个)(,较)(6月)(增)(加)(7个)(,三)(亚)(,济)(南)(,扬)(州)(等)(地)(的)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(比)(例)(均)(达)(到)(2.8%以)(上)(,在)(7月)(内)(,仅)(有)(三)(个)(城)(市)(房)(价)(环)(比)(下)(调)(,创)(历)(史)(最)(少)(记)(录)(。
从)(整)(体)(来)(看)(,我)(国)(楼)(市)(当)(前)(仍)(然)(普)(遍)(处)(于)(上)(涨)(势)(头)(,而)(且)(上)(涨)(幅)(度)(和)(范)(围)(并)(没)(有)(明)(显)(的)(变)(化)(,甚)(至)(有)(所)(扩)(大)(,从)(环)(比)(增)(长)(指)(数)(来)(看)(仍)(然)(处)(于)(过)(热)(区)(间)(内)(。当)(前)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(涨)(幅)(回)(落)(只)(是)(短)(暂)(的)(喘)(息)(,楼)(市)(还)(需)(实)(质)(性)(的)(降)(温)(。既)(然)(三)(线)(城)(市)(刚)(需)(增)(长)(已)(经)(是)(大)(势)(所)(趋)(,那)(么)(为)(了)(稳)(定)(楼)(价)(只)(能)(从)(供)(给)(角)(度)(来)(考)(虑)(。当)(地)(政)(府)(需)(要)(增)(加)(人)(才)(住)(房)(,共)(有)(产)(权)(房)(等)(保)(障)(性)(住)(房)(,提)(供)(更)(多)(的)(建)(设)(用)(地)(,保)(证)(房)(源)(充)(足)(供)(给)(,同)(时)(匹)(配)(以)(限)(购)(,限)(售)(,限)(贷)(等)(政)(策)(抑)(制)(投)(资)(性)(需)(求)(对)(于)(市)(场)(的)(挤)(占)(。
此)(外)(,当)(前)(楼)(市)(的)(波)(涛)(汹)(涌)(已)(经)(波)(及)(到)(租)(房)(市)(场)(。根)(据)(我)(爱)(我)(家)(集)(团)(研)(究)(院)(的)(统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,7月)(北)(京)(住)(房)(租)(赁)(月)(租)(金)(均)(价)(为)(4902元)(,相)(较)(6月)(份)(上)(涨)(2.9%,甚)(至)(有)(不)(少)(中)(介)(坦)(言)(,部)(分)(地)(区)(房)(租)(涨)(幅)(已)(经)(超)(过)(10%,海)(淀)(区)(房)(租)(在)(一)(年)(时)(间)(内)(上)(涨)(了)(46.7%。
一)(线)(城)(市)(新)(房)(楼)(市)(的)(降)(温)(,对)(应)(的)(是)(租)(房)(市)(场)(的)(火)(爆)(,某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(可)(以)(视)(为)(限)(购)(限)(贷)(、支)(付)(力)(交)(差)(等)(人)(购)(房)(刚)(需)(的)(一)(种)(外)(溢)(,从)(一)(个)(层)(面)(反)(应)(购)(房)(刚)(需)(仍)(然)(比)(较)(旺)(盛)(。根)(据)(北)(京)(租)(房)(市)(场)(和)(当)(地)(租)(房)(者)(人)(均)(收)(入)(初)(步)(计)(算)(,房)(租)(占)(收)(入)(的)(比)(例)(达)(到)(了)(58.6%,应)(届)(生)(租)(房)(开)(支)(占)(月)(均)(工)(资)(收)(入)(比)(例)(达)(到)(67%。可)(以)(说)(,新)(房)(在)(年)(轻)(人)(身)(上)(的)(担)(子)(并)(没)(有)(减)(少)(,而)(租)(房)(却)(成)(为)(了)(他)(们)(更)(为)(繁)(重)(的)(负)(担)(。当)(房)(租)(不)(断)(上)(涨)(,相)(当)(部)(分)(人)(群)(或)(再)(次)(被)(挤)(回)(购)(房)(群)(体)(。
综)(上)(,对)(于)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(涨)(幅)(回)(落)(,我)(们)(不)(能)(盲)(目)(乐)(观)(,须)(理)(性)(看)(待)(,这)(只)(是)(迈)(出)(“坚)(决)(遏)(制)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(”的)(第)(一)(步)(,从)(当)(前)(来)(看)(,楼)(市)(降)(温)(仍)(然)(任)(重)(道)(远)(,还)(需)(要)(进)(一)(步)(“实)(质)(性)(降)(温)(”。
窃)(以)(为)(,当)(前)(楼)(市)(稍)(稍)(降)(温)(,更)(多)(是)(基)(于)(政)(策)(严)(打)(之)(下)(的)(暂)(时)(性)(预)(期)(改)(变)(,假)(如)(没)(有)(更)(多)(实)(质)(性)(举)(措)(的)(话)(,这)(种)(预)(期)(未)(必)(能)(够)(持)(久)(,假)(如)(“预)(期)(效)(应)(”过)(去)(的)(话)(,房)(价)(或)(反)(弹)(更)(加)(厉)(害)(。因)(此)(,出)(台)(更)(多)(实)(质)(性)(措)(施)(如)(增)(加)(供)(给)(等)(来)(稳)(定)(预)(期)(是)(当)(务)(之)(急)(。
值)(得)(提)(醒)(的)(是)(,除)(了)(严)(管)(政)(策)(之)(外)(,我)(们)(房)(价)(调)(控)(政)(策)(还)(应)(当)(鼓)(励)(增)(加)(供)(给)(,所)(以)(一)(味)(限)(制)(开)(发)(商)(供)(给)(比)(如)(提)(高)(融)(资)(难)(度)(和)(成)(本)(,未)(必)(是)(理)(想)(的)(办)(法)(。调)(控)(房)(价)(政)(策)(,我)(觉)(得)(还)(是)(要)(领)(会)(好)(中)(共)(中)(央)(政)(治)(局)(7月)(31日)(会)(议)(“坚)(持)(因)(城)(施)(策)(,促)(进)(供)(求)(平)(衡)(,合)(理)(引)(导)(预)(期)(”的)(精)(神)(上)(来)(,一)(切)(政)(策)(措)(施)(都)(应)(该)(回)(到)(“促)(进)(供)(求)(平)(衡)(”上)(来)(,即)(增)(加)(供)(给)(,减)(少)(需)(求)(。(作)(者)(系)(中)(国)(财)(政)(科)(学)(研)(究)(院)(应)(用)(经)(济)(学)(博)(士)(后)()返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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